Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to keep rates on pause through 2016 With the domestic economy on the mend, the Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We expect the BoK to keep rates at their current lows throughout 2016. 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we wrong on EM equities? The renewed slump in emerging market (EM) equities perhaps calls into question our view that they will perform well in 2016/17. But the latest declines have been driven by a fall in commodity prices... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Public sector pay rise to pose another inflation risk Inflation is likely to have accelerated in November, as last year’s slump in global oil prices begins to drop out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, the Pay Commission’s recommendation for a... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's faith in finance ministry is misplaced The RBI is expressing a high degree of faith in the finance ministry’s ability to offset a rising public sector wage bill by boosting tax revenues or trimming other forms of current spending. We fear... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Winners and losers from slower growth in China The combination of slowing investment alongside continued strong consumption growth in China is having a major impact on the pattern of growth in the rest of Asia. Hong Kong and Vietnam have been the... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Most EMs well-placed to weather Fed tightening Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial risks in the emerging world in aggregate are low and there is little to suggest that the onset of Fed tightening will trigger an EM... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s recession will be brief Taiwan’s economy slipped into recession last quarter as the country’s terrible export performance fed into much weaker consumer spending. However, we expect a return to growth in the fourth quarter... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recovery in EM manufacturing continues, but remains uneven November’s PMI surveys, published today, point to a continued but extremely patchy recovery across the EM world. Industry seems to be doing better in Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe but the PMIs for... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle now at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, rather than just being on pause, we maintain our view that the loosening cycle is now at an end. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The fall in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in November highlights that, despite recent signs of a recovery in the hard activity data, local industry continues to face significant headwinds. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia CPI (Nov.) Consumer price inflation in Indonesia dropped back sharply in November as the impact of last year’s hike in subsidised fuel prices dropped out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, inflation looks... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) At best, Emerging Asia's PMIs for November suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors are past the worst of this year’s downturn. But conditions generally remain weak, while the decline in... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No sense of panic as Fed hike approaches Asian financial markets have held up well over the past month despite a renewed slump in China’s equity market at the end of last week and growing expectations of a December Fed rate hike. 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP figures for Q3 suggest that India was the world's fastest-growing major economy last quarter. But the official data remain inconsistent with numerous other indicators which suggest the economy is... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Fears of Asia slowdown overdone For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in Asia, regional growth remains remarkably stable. That said, there are still no signs of recovery, with exports again acting as a drag on growth in the third... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
