A lot of commentary has blamed the slowdown in Asian GDP growth in the third quarter on the trade war between the US and China. We think these claims are misguided. The most obvious explanation for the downturn in Asian growth last quarter is a slowdown in global growth, which has hit demand for the region’s exports.
Meanwhile, although we expect Pakistan and the IMF to eventually agree on the terms of a bailout, the announcement earlier this week that talks have broken down and won’t reopen until January suggests that the negotiations are likely to prove long and difficult.
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