India Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Today’s industrial production data suggest, in stark contrast to the upbeat message from the rocketing GDP figures, that Indian industry is still in the doldrums. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should Asia worry about Brexit? The referendum on Britain leaving the EU has dominated international headlines over the last week, with some commentators warning that a “Brexit” would have significant implications well beyond Europe... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but central banks in no hurry to hike rates Inflation looks set to rise in most of Emerging Asia over the coming year, but probably not by enough to worry policy makers, who will look to keep interest rates low to support growth. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Korea’s rate cut and restructuring plans The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly lowered its policy rate to a new record low of 1.25% today, marking its first cut since last June. The decision came a day after plans were unveiled for the... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation not enough to prompt rate cut Consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped in May, but not by enough to bring it below the RBI’s 5.0% target for March 2017. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle likely at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.50% today and, while the consensus is expecting further modest loosening later this year, we think that rates will remain unchanged... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will Vietnam’s exports continue to boom? Exports from Vietnam should continue to grow strongly in the short-term, helped by booming foreign direct investment into the manufacturing sector. However, the lack of spillovers from the dynamic... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are the risks for EMs? The wobble in financial markets in the emerging world since investors began to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy in May has been much smaller than in the past. The Fed, along with renewed... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Further cuts to repo rate unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its repo rate by 150bp since the start of last year, but we believe that it will now keep rates on hold not just at next week’s policy meeting but for the rest... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Domestic strength can’t keep propping up Emerging Asia Economic growth in Emerging Asia has remained remarkably steady over the past year, even as export demand has stalled. However, policy support and lower oil prices will not continue to prop up... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India's manufacturing PMI edged up in May, but the reading remained lacklustre. The big picture is that local manufacturers continue to face significant structural constraints. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The May PMIs for Emerging Asia continue to point to lacklustre conditions in Asia’s manufacturing sectors. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, Korea’s manufacturing... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies slide on Fed fears Asian currencies fell back in May following signals from the Federal Reserve that interest rates in the US are likely to be raised this summer. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Another look at the ailing banking sector The sharp rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) in Q1 does not indicate that there has been a sudden deterioration in asset quality in India, but instead suggests a greater recognition of stressed... 30th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth edges up for second consecutive month Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up for the second consecutive month in March, suggesting that fears of an imminent collapse continue to be misplaced. The latest rise was broad-based but... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
