China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Rare earths to remain a flashpoint despite Xi-Trump call The long-awaited call between Xi and Trump seems to have averted any immediate risk of the Geneva truce falling apart, though it doesn't make a lasting settlement between the two more likely. One... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korea’s struggling economy, Indonesia’s fiscal stimulus Korea’s new president Lee Jae-myung faces an uphill battle to revive the flagging economy. GDP shrank in Q1 and early Q2 data suggest the economy may already be in recession. The stage is set for a... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ends easing cycle with a bang The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps (to 5.50%) while also changing its policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” today are clear... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: limited impact from scrapping two-child policy The abolition of Vietnam’s controversial two-child policy will not lead to a sharp rise in the number of children being born, and will have only a small economic impact. 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How will EMs respond to rising imports from China? Emerging markets’ imports from China have surged since 2019 and this is likely to continue as punitive US tariffs push Chinese exporters to look to alternative markets. EM governments have, so far... 5th June 2025 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Korea afford post-election stimulus? President Lee’s pledge to provide fiscal stimulus would, if implemented, provide a much-needed lift to Korea’s economy. The country’s public finances could easily accommodate a temporary rise in... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Good times for Indian equities may prove short-lived India’s stock market has fared well this quarter, outperforming other emerging market equities in aggregate, but we doubt this bout of outperformance will last in the near term. 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Apr. 2025) With base pay growth on a new upswing, we think the Bank of Japan will restart its hiking cycle before long. 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Policy turmoil starting to damage investment intentions Trade policy uncertainty has damaged investment intentions in the US, Canada, Mexico and South East Asia. But intentions elsewhere have held up better and investment growth itself has yet to falter... 4th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trade war weighing on EM manufacturers’ sentiment The manufacturing PMIs remained subdued across EMs last month despite the US-China trade truce. That said, the timely hard activity data released so far has shown more resilience than the survey data. 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect from Korea’s new president Victory for Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) in today’s presidential election in Korea should help bring to an end six months of political turmoil. Boosting the economy and agreeing a trade... 3rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity China is mounting a push for global technological leadership by deploying industrial policy on a huge scale. Judging by how competitive many Chinese firms now are at the cutting edge, the effort is... 2nd June 2025 · 25 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economy struggling but exports holding up The impact of the trade war on Korean exporters has so far been limited. Although exports to the US fell in May, the decline was modest and offset by strong demand from other markets. However, other... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (May 2025) The rise in the Caixin services PMI for May is reassuring and suggests that the US-China trade truce has boosted consumer and business sentiment. But it wasn’t enough to prevent the composite PMI from... 2nd June 2025 (Updated 5th June 2025) · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: New GDP forecasts, long-run rankings, RBI preview In light of the strong Q1 data, we've revised up our GDP growth forecast for India for 2025. Into next week, with inflation at a multi-year low, the RBI looks set to continue its easing cycle. 30th May 2025 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May. 25) China’s economy slowed in April. And although US tariffs have had a bigger impact on consumer confidence than export growth, broader external headwinds will drive down export growth later this year... 30th May 2025 · 0 mins read
