Capital Daily Two threats to bonds that aren’t rate hikes or fiscal crises With the major central banks lining up to talk tough on inflation this week, and investors on edge about fiscal problems in many places, we think there are some other growing medium-term risks facing... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent surge in semiconductors? This month’s surge in semiconductor share indices mainly seems to reflect signs of growing demand for CPUs used for AI inference and a related need for more high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. 28th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
India Economics Update Heatwave completes trifecta of risks for India Extreme heat is now compounding the challenges of rising fertiliser prices and deficient monsoon rains to undermine yields in Indian agriculture. Industry and services could be hit too; a surge in... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Industry-driven recovery continues Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s growth accelerated last month, with higher oil prices doing little to dampen industrial activity. Indeed, over Q1 as a whole, China’s economy expanded at... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Economic security tops Politburo agenda The Politburo has just held its triannual gathering to discuss the economy. The post-meeting communique suggests the leadership has turned more positive on current conditions and sees less of a case... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates again in June While the BoJ kept policy settings unchanged today and turned more pessimistic about the outlook for economic activity, policymakers seem more worried about the inflationary consequences of higher... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s boom becoming less lop-sided Taiwan’s economy has boomed over the past couple of years on the back of strong AI-related exports, whereas household consumption has struggled. But there are signs that the economy is becoming less... 27th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Domestic impact of higher oil prices remains limited The war in Iran seems to have had limited impact on China's economy so far. The government has insulated end-users from much of the price shock - indeed, it cut retail prices this week - and the... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Who will hike rates next? Korea’s chip boom The Philippines raised interest rates this week due to rising inflation concerns, and we think Pakistan could follow at its upcoming meeting on Monday given inflation is already above target and... 24th April 2026 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation worries outweigh growth risks The MPC minutes of the RBI’s April meeting – in which the repo rate was left unchanged at 5.25% – released this week suggest that the upside risks to inflation from the energy shock are a bigger... 24th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly AI revolution still largely bypassing Japan The external trade data for March showed that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has started to reduce energy inflows from the Middle East. But the more striking development is the recent... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
