Capital Daily Respite at the very long end of the yield curve may be brief We don’t think the falls in the yields of very long-dated government bonds will last much longer. 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP to choose a new leader, growth remains healthy PM Ishiba's successor will have to grapple with a politically-challenging environment when they take office early next month. But on the plus side, they will inherit a fairly resilient economy that... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Equities Update We don’t think there’s a bubble in China’s stock market We aren’t persuaded that there’s excessive exuberance in China’s stock market, despite some recent commentary. We continue to expect it to fare well for a while yet. 12th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will resume tightening this year While trade tensions have started to weigh on Japan’s exports, the wider economy has shrugged off these headwinds. With inflation still running hot, we expect the Bank of Japan to leave the door open... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Is Trump pushing India into China’s arms? The deterioration in Indo-US relations appears to have expedited New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing, as highlighted by Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to China in seven years last... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: deficit breach could send bond spreads wider Concerns that Indonesia’s government will breach it’s 3% of GDP budget deficit rule have only grown after the replacement of respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani. While the fiscal risk premium in... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economic resilience amid US tariff hit After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 10th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Update Key questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Indonesia This Update answers the key questions on recent developments in Indonesia and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy, as well as the country’s financial markets. We discussed many of these... 10th September 2025 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2025) Headline CPI inflation slipped back into negative territory last month, but this just reflects volatile food prices. Underlying inflation has actually ticked up lately. This is mostly due to temporary... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Bank Indonesia’s independence at risk? Concerns about the independence of Bank Indonesia have grown following the announcement of a fresh “burden-sharing” agreement with the government and, most recently, the removal of respected finance... 9th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Change in Japan's government won’t keep BoJ from hiking Markets appear concerned that Prime Minister Ishiba’s successor will put pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low. But available precedents suggest that the Bank would not be easily... 8th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia’s Finance Minister Removed The removal of Indonesia’s well-respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani from her post will raise concerns that, in the wake of recent protests in the country, President Prabowo Subianto will seek to... 8th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s 10-year yield may soon surpass China’s We still think the 10-year government bond yield in Japan will finish this year higher than that in China, as the former rises further and the latter resumes its downward trend. 8th September 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Aug. 2025) Exports were broadly unchanged last month – the slowdown in headline y/y growth was just a base effect. But with the temporary boost from the US-China trade truce fading and the US raising tariffs on... 8th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export resilience is a symptom of domestic weakness We are re-sending this Weekly due to a technical error. Apologies for any inconvenience caused. Policymakers in China seem more concerned about the overcapacity problem than the trade war with the US... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
