Japan Economics Weekly Case for near-term rate hike strengthening While the escalating tensions between China and Japan will provide a small drag on output this quarter, the January activity data were encouraging and suggest that GDP growth will pick up this quarter... 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 26) On balance, the January activity and inflation figures suggest that the BoJ won’t wait much longer before hiking rates again. 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (February 2026) Our Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect most Asian economies to record solid growth in 2026, with robust demand for AI-related... 26th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2026) Our EM Capital Flows measure points to a decline in inflows in recent weeks, although some of this appears to be related to idiosyncratic factors. And in any case, EM external positions look strong by... 26th February 2026 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update China’s tariff respite may last some time The past week’s shifts in US tariffs have put a large number of Chinese manufacturers back on a level playing field in the US market with other non-US producers. These lower rates look likely to... 26th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Backlash against key green policies has further to run While President Trump’s repeal of the “endangerment finding” could have a long-lasting impact on US emissions, the broader rollback of climate policy under Trump already appears to be weighing on... 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Weakness in China’s equities could be short-lived After a weak start to the year, we expect Chinese equities to regain their footing over the coming months, partly because their valuations aren’t especially stretched. Moreover, we expect the AI rally... 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea shifts to “dot plot” framework The key development from today’s meeting of the Bank of Korea was not the widely expected decision to keep the policy rate at 2.50%, but the shift to a new six-month forward-guidance “dot plot”. While... 26th February 2026 · 3 mins read
APAC Commercial Property Chart Pack APAC Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2026) Asia-Pacific all-property capital value declines eased further in Q4 to minus 0.8% y/y, reinforcing signs that the market is bottoming out. Looking ahead, however, elevated risk-free rates and muted... 26th February 2026 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Korea Policy Rate (Feb. 2026) The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate on hold today at 2.50%, and we expect the central bank to maintain this stance until at least mid-year, before eventually restarting its easing cycle around the... 26th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Renewed yen weakness is unlikely to last Further efforts from the Takaichi government to influence the BoJ threatens another round of turmoil in Japan’s bond and currency markets. But we think the underlying fundamentals point towards... 25th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM budget deficits on diverging paths Fiscal tightening has helped to narrow budget deficits markedly in a number of EMs, notably Argentina, South Africa and Turkey. But elsewhere adjustment has been limited – particularly in Brazil. And... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: jump in fertility rate unlikely to be sustained The fertility rate in Korea increased in 2025 for the second year in a row, offering a rare glimmer of relief given the country’s terrible demographics. But the fertility rate remains very low and we... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan has got 99 problems but investment isn’t one PM Takaichi is misdiagnosing what’s holding back Japan’s economy. This means that rather than boosting Japan’s long-term growth potential, her policies may instead unleash a wave of wasteful public... 24th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
