Capital Daily What’s a bit different about this latest slump in JGBs Unlike the rout this spring, the latest sell-off in JGBs seems to have been mainly driven by a more hawkish assessment of Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy across the curve. We forecast the 10-year yield to... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Limited macro impact from further rupee weakness The Indian rupee continues to hit fresh lows against the US dollar and we think it will weaken to 93/$ by the end of next year. This presents limited macro risk: inflation and FX debts are very low... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy bigger than thought and poised to rebound Rebased national accounts data released this week show that Japan’s nominal GDP is around 5% higher than previously estimated, which in turn implies that the ratio of public debt to GDP is lower. This... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly AI infrastructure buildout to ramp up next year While China has remained hot on the heels of the US this year when it comes to AI model development, insufficient chip supply means it has lagged in the construction of the data centres that will be... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Credit data for November showed net new financing more than doubling. But that mostly reflects the usual seasonal pattern. To iron out that seasonality, we prefer to look at growth in outstanding... 12th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT meets amid border clashes, Taiwan’s export boom The Bank of Thailand is likely to restart its easing cycle next week, against a backdrop of weak activity, deflation, an appreciating currency, and political/geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift rates to 1.75% by 2027 The Bank of Japan will almost certainly lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting. And while government subsidies will push headline inflation below 2% next year, the strength of... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC signals limited stimulus but some rebalancing The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggests that monetary and fiscal policy will remain supportive next year but that any additional easing will be modest. Instead, the focus... 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update GDP rebasing could push India above Japan On our current forecasts, India is on course to overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2027. But there is a decent chance that the upcoming rebasing of India’s national accounts data... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov. 2025) Consumer price inflation rose to its highest level since China’s reopening from zero-COVID (excluding volatility around Lunar New Year), but this was the result of a weather-related rise in food... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand-Cambodia conflict: assessing the fallout The economic fallout from renewed border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia should remain modest. Trade between the two countries is small, and Thailand’s tourism sector should be insulated given... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a... 9th December 2025 · 17 mins read
China Economics Update Trump eases the hardware bottlenecks on Chinese AI China’s leadership has spurned Nvidia’s knee-capped H20 chips. But it may be willing to let its firms buy the more powerful H200 chips that President Trump is now offering. This would allow China to... 9th December 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo signals further easing in 2026 The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a relatively dovish tone, suggesting that more fiscal support and monetary easing is on the cards next year. The leadership continues to highlight... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
