Commodities Update China could delay the tipping point for oil prices The mismatch between oil supplied and consumed in China suggests that inventories are being drawn down there, which has eased the upward pressure on global oil prices. Against the backdrop of the US... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The fate of one of the war’s best hedges China’s government bonds – unlike those almost everywhere else – have largely shrugged off the conflict. We think their medium-run prospects are bright even if a US-Iran deal renders obsolete their... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Resilient activity data point to rate hike next month While the BoJ’s measures of underlying inflation were the weakest they’ve been in years in April, the recent surge in input costs due to the Iran War will result in a renewed strengthening. Indeed... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity, Labour Market (Apr. 26) & Tokyo CPI (May 26) The April activity data show that Japan’s economy is shrugging off the energy cost shock and cement the case for a BoJ rate hike next month. 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Asia Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Asia’s heavy reliance on imported energy – particularly shipments passing through the... 28th May 2026 · 0 mins read
RBI Watch Rate hike likely as inflation and FX concerns build In contrast to the majority of analysts who are expecting no change, we think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will raise the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% at the conclusion of next week’s Monetary Policy... 28th May 2026 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update A hawkish hold, as Bank of Korea signals rate hikes coming The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, but clearly signalled that rate hikes were coming amid concerns about the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. We have adjusted... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Hukou reform is no panacea for weak consumption Chinese policymakers have already improved rural migrants’ access to urban public services considerably over the past decade. The latest State Council plan is a continuation of those efforts rather... 28th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Japanese capital repatriation still not a big threat Despite soaring JGB yields, we don’t think global markets have much to fear from a rush of Japanese capital repatriation. 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: Inflation risks and the BOJ’s next moves 16th June 2026, 9:00AM BST The Bank of Japan looks set to raise rates at its June meeting in the face of an acute, energy-imposed shift in the country’s inflation dynamics, but how much further could the BOJ go to tighten po
China Activity Monitor CAP: Still no clear growth drag from Iran conflict Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed in April. However, this looks to have been entirely driven by weaker domestic demand on the back of a pullback in fiscal spending. Exports... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2026) Capital outflows from EMs have generally eased over the past month. Further progress in talks between the US and Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz would help outflows to decline further. But even... 26th May 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India trip notes – heatwave, rupee, RBI and AI A week spent visiting clients and contacts in Delhi and Mumbai has underscored the extent to which the Middle East conflict is reverberating through the economy. Several of our discussions were... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could the BoJ lift rates into restrictive territory? The inflationary consequences of the Iran War have made us more confident in our view that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to a neutral level of around 2% before long. However, the hurdles for the... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
