India Economics Update ECL transition: an inflection point for India’s banks India’s transition to Expected Credit Loss (ECL) provisioning in April 2027 will reshape how banks account for risk. By requiring forward-looking loss estimates rather than waiting for defaults to... 13th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (October 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. There are no signs that higher interest rates are resulting in tighter financial conditions or... 13th October 2026 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Seoul’s housing boom complicates the BoK’s next move House price growth in Korea has accelerated, but the renewed strength is largely confined to Seoul. This is a concern for the central bank but, for now, we think officials are more likely to tighten... 12th October 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Parsing the RBI’s messaging, US Green Card curbs The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this week with a 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.50%) and Governor Sanjay Malhotra's worries about a "generalisation of inflation" suggest to us that further... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC pushes back against RMB undervaluation claims The PBOC has attempted to set the record straight on the nature of its FX intervention and refute claims that currency depreciation is driving China’s soaring trade surplus. While we agree that a... 9th October 2026 · 7 mins read
China Scenarios China Economic Scenarios - Q4 2026 China Scenarios brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data on China with Fathom’s world-leading scenario modelling and proprietary data. It contains six thematic... 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: strong growth provides fiscal breathing room Strong economic growth has boosted Malaysia’s government revenues, giving policymakers some room to lift spending ahead of a possible general election next year. But the budget still targets a further... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Asia’s boom comes with commodity risks This week we participated in an Emerging Markets Forum in Monaco, with a special focus on Central Asia. The key takeaway is that the growth outlook in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains strong and... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China could weather tougher EU trade restrictions Even a sharp escalation in EU trade restrictions would have only a small impact on China’s economy. We estimate that an additional 20%-pt tariff on Chinese imports across strategically important... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong growth in Vietnam, BSP hiking cycle not over Vietnam’s GDP growth surged to 10% y/y in the third quarter. However, rapid credit growth of around 20% is helping to fuel the boom, raising concerns that bad loans could rise and growth could slow... 9th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB sell-off may have run its course The 10-year JGB yield has levelled off over the last couple of weeks even as yields elsewhere have surged to multi-year highs. While our fiscal trackers suggest that growth in government spending has... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen found its feet amid the bond sell-off The yen has, surprisingly, been one of the best performers this year amid the rise in bond yields; we think it will fare even better once they fall back. 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike to the repo rate today (to 5.50%), vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today, vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most analysts had initially expected the... 7th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Aug. 26) The continued strength of wage growth even after the end of the summer bonus will encourage the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to neutral levels sooner rather than later. 7th October 2026 · 1 min read
