Global Economics Update Central banks indicate rising risk of near-term hikes We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to review the latest Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions and what their communications imply for the future. (Recording available here.) This Update... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Will Korean consumers continue to shrug off energy spike? March retail sales in Korea rose strongly in both m/m and y/y terms, suggesting households have largely shrugged off the Middle East crisis, with inflation kept in check despite higher global energy... 1st May 2026 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Aviation sector under increasing stress Unlike the cost of automotive fuel, aviation fuel costs in India have been rising since the start of the Iran war, particularly for international flights. With airlines' margins under pressure - and... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some signs of easing manufacturing overcapacity The protection that Chinese firms are receiving from high global energy prices, alongside surging overseas chip demand, have pushed up profit margins in Chinese industry and resulted in a slight... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that economic and financial vulnerabilities in most EMs were low coming into the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Policymakers do their part, but oil prices still driving bond markets Policymakers talking (and, in Japan, acting) tough may help to shore up market confidence and buy time until a resolution to the crisis in the Gulf materialises. But financial markets remain in large... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus China’s rising trade surplus and its global implications China’s trade surplus has reached a record 1% of world GDP and looks set to rise further. It’s been driven, in part, by a surge in China’s exports – China has gained export market share across both... 30th April 2026 · 18 mins read
China Economics Update China’s startling debt build-up is continuing China is now more indebted relative to its GDP than the US, euro-zone and UK and the debt burden is still rising relentlessly. The risk that runaway debt triggers a crisis in China’s state-dominated... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – AI & green tech underpin optimism We spent last week visiting clients in Taipei, Beijing and Shanghai. There were some concerns about events in the Middle East and the wider external environment. But the overall mood was relatively... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ keen to hike but risks tilted towards further delay We are sending this publication one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed due to a public holiday on 1st May. The Bank of Japan is clearly worried about the inflationary... 30th April 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2026) The PMIs suggest that the supply shock from the Iran War led to a further rise in price pressures in April but that manufacturing output continued to accelerate. This appears to have been largely... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar. 26) The March activity data only show a small economic hit from the energy shock so far but we still think that the economy will slow noticeably over the next couple of quarters. 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is the energy shock supercharging the Chinese export boom? 12th May 2026, 9:00AM BST China is widely seen as a key “winner” of the Iran conflict–driven energy shock, thanks in part to its dominance in green tech manufacturing. But how big is the upside?
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s... 29th April 2026 · 0 mins read
