China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 2025) Headline inflation came out of negative territory last month, with core inflation rising to its highest level in over a year, likely reflecting the effects of the consumer goods trade-in scheme. But... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Trade negotiations to take centre stage for Asia Trump has confirmed that punitive tariffs on Asian countries will take effect on 1 st August unless trade deals are agreed by the end of the month. Despite the urgency, negotiations could prove... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Childbirth subsidies a small step toward rebalancing China has just confirmed an annual childcare allowance for parents with children below 3 years old. The sums involved are too small to have a near-term impact on the birth rate or consumption. But the... 8th July 2025 (Updated 28th July 2025) · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tariff uncertainty may delay BoJ rate hikes until 2026 Our base case remains that Japan will reach a deal with the US to fend off the threatened 25% US tariff. If that deal is reached soon and includes no or only a modest increase in the US tariff rate... 8th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump threatens to resurrect 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea President Donald Trump has released the first of his “letters” threatening to impose country-specific tariffs of 25% on both Japan and South Korea from August 1 st, if those countries can’t reach a... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume... 7th July 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Demographic decline: what Taiwan can learn from Korea Taiwan and Korea face some of the world’s worst demographic headwinds with working-age populations set to shrink by 1% a year over the next decade. Efforts to boost fertility have largely failed, and... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s export success only partly due to rerouting Vietnam’s US-bound exports have surged since the US imposed very high tariffs on imports from China. While the export figures are overstating the benefits to Vietnam’s economy due to a surge in... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Vietnam trade agreement eases worst-case fears The newly agreed US–Vietnam trade agreement should help preserve Vietnam’s competitive edge in the region, but the overall impact will also depend on how other countries in Asia are treated. Meanwhile... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Hopes grow over strong monsoon and US trade deal The southwest monsoon has fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the... 4th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China-US trade rerouting in Trump’s crosshairs Given its trade truce with the US, China isn’t at much risk of being hit with higher duties when the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs ends next week. But Trump’s trade deals with the UK and... 4th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade negotiations go down to the wire The temporary pause on the 24% “reciprocal” tariff Trump imposed on imports from Japan in April is due to expire next week. As things stand, a deal with Japan looks unlikely and it’s possible that... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam settles with Trump, with China again a target Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
APAC Commercial Property Update Six key calls for Asia-Pacific Commercial Real Estate We are forecasting a slower recovery in APAC real estate markets than in any other cycle, the extent of which would also make the region a global laggard. Within the region, we also expect a further... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
