Japan Economics Update Strong Shunto results will prompt more BoJ rate hikes This year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) delivered strong pay hikes for the third consecutive year, which will convince the Bank of Japan to tighten policy further this year. And while softer... 23rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fewer rate cuts but fiscal easing won’t come to the rescue China's central bank left the loan prime rates on hold today. With higher oil prices set to keep the economy out of deflationary territory, we're now only expecting the central bank to deliver one... 20th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy shortages rather than prices the imminent threat for India Regulated prices insulate consumers in India from surges in global energy prices but they are no protection against – and, indeed, they contribute to – shortages of fuels and related products. We’ve... 20th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Energy shockwaves: Asia first in the line of fire We have revised our forecasts to incorporate higher energy prices, assuming Brent averages close to US$100 per barrel in Q2 before easing to around US$80 by year-end. Given Asia’s heavy reliance on... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Industry starting to suffer from Middle East conflict Shortages of naphtha resulting from the conflict in the Middle East are evoking the image of severe disruptions in Japan’s manufacturing sector as happened during the pandemic. With some countries in... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Can China’s markets continue to outperform? China’s relative equity and bond market resilience could continue even if the war drags on, although the outlook for the renminbi is less clear. 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The future might not be so bad for government bonds While the conflict in the Middle East could evolve in myriad ways, we think government bonds would typically recover in our ‘baseline’ scenario but struggle in our ‘adverse’ one. That largely reflects... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals willingness to hike rates again soon A slim majority of BoJ Board members believe that the conflict in the Middle East will on balance strengthen inflationary pressures in Japan. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Energy shock looms large over India’s state elections India’s state election cycle kicks back into gear next month with the energy shock from the Iran conflict reverberating across the country. That raises the stakes for New Delhi: if the crisis... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka – in the path of the storm Sri Lanka’s fragile external position makes it one of the countries most vulnerable to a sharp rise in energy prices, and the decision earlier this week to declare every Wednesday a public holiday for... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Net government debt will fall to 80% of GDP by 2028 Japan’s public finances are improving at an even faster pace than we had anticipated, supporting our long-held view that the country won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon. 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting today and, while officials seemed sanguine about inflation risks, they are clearly concerned about the renewed... 17th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update How much of a bubble is there really in Korean equities? While a partial unwind of earlier “excessive exuberance” may explain some of the huge swings in Korea’s equities since the Iran war began, we think the fundamentals of its earlier rally are stronger... 17th March 2026 · 6 mins read
