China Economics Update China’s deflation problem isn’t going away Hopes that recent data show China starting to emerge from deflation are likely to be disappointed. The recovery in core goods inflation last month mostly reflects the impact of government subsidies... 11th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Weak Chinese LNG imports to loosen overall market Weak Chinese LNG demand has been a striking feature of the LNG market in 2025, and we suspect demand will remain soft into next year. Given China is the world’s largest buyer of LNG, weaker Chinese... 11th August 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Semiconductor” tariffs threaten more than just chips Trump's plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals isn't a big threat at face value – chips and pharma only make up a small fraction of China's exports to the US. But there is a risk... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump tees up a fresh twist for the oil market OPEC+'s decision to raise output further in September and Trump's smaller-than-expected secondary tariff announcement on India added up to a bearish combination for oil prices, as they fell by just... 8th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Trump targets pharma, chips and India Malaysia and Taiwan are the two countries in Asia most exposed to Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on semiconductors. However, exemptions for companies with production facilities in the US and limited... 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India caught in the US-Russia crossfire The extra 25% US tariff on India for its continued economic ties with Russia, on top of the 25% tariff that took effect this week, would significantly dent India’s appeal as an alternative to China... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Weaker bonus growth won’t prevent further rate hikes Sluggish consumption and slower wage growth may convince the Bank of Japan to keep policy settings unchanged for longer. But amidst few signs that trade tensions have weighed on corporate profits so... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jul. 2025) Exports came under pressure again last month – the acceleration in headline y/y growth was simply due to base effects. With the temporary boost to demand from the US-China trade truce already fading... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: external risks no longer loom so large Indonesia’s current account position has improved markedly since the onset of the pandemic and we expect the deficit to stay small over the next couple of years. The rupiah will probably depreciate... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate on hold at 5.50% and maintained its “neutral” policy stance today, despite India already being hit by a 25% US tariff with the potential for it to... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jun. 2025) Although regular earnings growth has been struggling to gain momentum, we think it will do so before long. Accordingly, the data shouldn’t stand in the way of the Bank of Japan resume its tightening... 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Oil market remains unfazed by geopolitics for now Despite President Trump’s threat to enforce 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, which could effectively choke off up to 5% of global... 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: consumer spending on the mend Consumer spending in Korea rebounded last quarter and should remain strong over the coming year as government stimulus, rate cuts, and rising wages support demand. But the ongoing downturn in the... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
