China Economics Update Exports to remain a near-term prop to growth Global demand is giving a bigger boost to China’s economy than we had anticipated this year and foreign tariffs will make little difference to aggregate export performance in the near term. We now... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Why is wage growth in Korea so weak? The recent weakness of wage growth in Korea seems at odds with the country’s low unemployment rate. But a closer look at the data suggests that the unemployment rate is overstating the health of the... 4th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Window for policy tightening is closing A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to... 4th June 2024 · 18 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May) The Manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Asia remained weak in May but have been a poor guide to the hard data on activity over the past year anyway. However, the PMIs have been a decent guide to price... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Wage growth will undershoot RBA’s forecasts This year’s minimum wage increase will be a bit smaller than we had anticipated. And with the looser labour market putting downward pressure on wage growth among workers not covered by the minimum... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) While house price growth accelerated rather sharply in May, stretched affordability points to a renewed slowdown. Indeed, most leading indicators point to a renewed moderation in price growth. 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India General Election 2024 Narendra Modi appears well on course for a third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister according to exit polls that project another big parliamentary majority for the BJP. 2nd June 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal tailwinds to return, export rush lifts freight rates Today’s PMIs suggest that China’s rebound is faltering. That appears to reflect a drying up of fiscal support after the initial surge at the beginning of the year. There’s more in the pipeline though... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q1 2024) The GDP figures for Q1 confirm that India’s economy slowed a touch at the start of the year but was nonetheless still booming on the eve of the general election. Looking ahead, we expect economic... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam: Rates to end the year lower, not higher The risk of monetary tightening in Vietnam has risen over the past few weeks due to concerns about the currency and inflation. We still think a rate hike is unlikely. But even if the central bank (SBV... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Key highlights from May This Monthly looks at some of the key highlights from the Climate Economics service in May, including our coverage of US tariffs on Chinese-made green technology and recent price movements in the EU... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in a momentous week India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower education costs could boost fertility rate While Japan's fertility rate seems to have fallen to a record low last year, it has held up better than in many of its high-income neighbours. Most of the decline is driven by the decline in marriage... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reluctance to inflict pain comes back to bite the RBA We aren't convinced that the further pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator in April will be replicated in the quarterly measure that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers... 31st May 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (May 2024) The jump in the Caixin services PMI means that the survey data for May now suggest economic momentum remained fairly robust last month. We think strength in exports, a step-up in fiscal support and... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
