Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2025) Despite the ongoing slump in consumer spending, we’re not convinced the RBA will cut rates as aggressively as markets are anticipating. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 25) If anything, the April activity data suggest that Japan’s economy is benefitting from trade tensions, which bodes well for our view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again soon. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tokyo CPI (May 25) The Tokyo CPI showed a further broad-based acceleration in inflation in inflation, which suggests that the Bank of Japan may hike rate even earlier than our current forecast of October. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Rerouting will ease tariff blow to Chinese exports The Trump Administration has announced that transshipped goods will be subject to a 40% tariff instead of the regular reciprocal rates. This will stack on top of any other tariffs applicable to the... 29th May 2025 (Updated 1st August 2025) · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Falling inflation gives RBI scope to keep cutting With headline inflation now at a multi-year low, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is poised to cut the repo rate by another 25bps (to 5.75%) at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Friday 6th June. In... 29th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although continued trade tensions have heightened economic uncertainty, they have had only a modest... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set to cut rates further The dovish tone adopted by the Bank of Korea today, alongside what we think will be continued weakness of the economy suggest that further interest rate cuts are likely in the coming months. 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Tariffs start to drag on China’s growth Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth slowed in April. But, so far, US tariffs seem to have had a bigger impact on consumer sentiment than industrial activity, with rerouting and... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by Q1 2026 As was widely expected, the RBNZ cut its Official Cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, today. The revelation that the decision to cut was not a unanimous one has been interpreted as a hawkish signal by... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts on the JGB drama, and what it means for the world Despite all of the debt and deficit news out of the US, the spotlight in ultra-long bond markets has increasingly been focused on Japan. The surge in yields there last week seems to have sparked a... 28th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (May 2025) With the RBNZ clearly concerned about the health of the economy, we continue to believe that its easing cycle has much further to run. 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (April 2025) With underlying price pressures proving somewhat persistent, we're sticking to our view that the RBA won't cut rates as far as markets are anticipating. 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wage growth stronger than official data suggest The bulk of the evidence suggests that the recent sharp slowdown in regular earnings growth is a statistical anomaly rather than genuine. With this year’s spring wage negotiations resulting in the... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
