Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: January rate hike now looking likely A flurry of communication by the Bank of Japan this week suggests that a rate hike at next week's meeting is very likely. And whereas the financial markets foresee just one additional 25bp rate hike... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec. 2024) The economy ended 2024 on a stronger note, thanks to tailwinds from recent policy easing. Increased fiscal spending should continue to provide a near-term prop to activity, but this won’t prevent... 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA may look past the tight labour market At first glance, data released this week should lessen the urgency for the Reserve Bank of Australia to loosen policy settings. After all, we learned that both unemployment and underutilisation rates... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Chinese bonds – is there any alternative? We think China’s 10-year government bond yield will fall to fresh record lows over the coming year, partly because the other investment options available to Chinese investors look increasingly... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: a pause, not an end to the easing cycle The Bank of Korea today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, but with the economy struggling and inflation under control, we doubt it will be long before the central bank resumes its easing... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 16th January 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are we on the cusp of a renewed rally in the yen? The Japanese yen has been boosted by the dip in US Treasury yields, and we think it will rally a bit further against the US dollar over 2025. 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift policy rate this month The Bank of Japan has signalled that it will raise rates at its January meeting. And with inflation set to remain above the Bank’s 2% target for a while yet, we’re sticking to our forecast that the... 16th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2024) 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariff front-running to temporarily boost world trade There is already some evidence of US importers increasing orders, at least for goods from China, before Trump’s proposed tariffs come into effect. We think this may continue in the next few months... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Debt swap a band-aid for China’s fiscal challenges The debt swap that kicked off in November and extends to 2028 reduces the risk of near-term defaults by local government financing vehicles, which would be destabilising for financial markets. But it... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The case for below-neutral rates in Australia It’s possible that prolonged weakness in economic activity and a jump in unemployment force the RBA to cut rates more aggressively than we’re anticipating. However, a more likely scenario resulting in... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump, tariffs and global supply chains If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on... 14th January 2025 · 18 mins read
