Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will lift rates to 4.10% by mid-2026 The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be a rate hike as soon as February. 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Trump eases the hardware bottlenecks on Chinese AI China’s leadership has spurned Nvidia’s knee-capped H20 chips. But it may be willing to let its firms buy the more powerful H200 chips that President Trump is now offering. This would allow China to... 9th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2025) The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be rate hike. 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo signals further easing in 2026 The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a relatively dovish tone, suggesting that more fiscal support and monetary easing is on the cards next year. The leadership continues to highlight... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily FOMC on deck; JGBs under siege As the final round of G10 central bank policy meetings for the year kicks off, the emerging theme is divergence. That applies to both the immediate policy decisions and, more importantly, to the... 8th December 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Nov. 2025) The tariff cuts agreed under the US-China trade truce didn’t help to lift shipments to the US last month, but overall export growth rebounded nonetheless. We think China’s exports will remain... 8th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026 As the new year approaches, we are highlighting the key themes that we think will set the overarching narrative for global commercial real estate in 2026. 5th December 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Leadership signals fiscal priorities for 2026 Improving the allocation of fiscal spending, rather than significantly increasing the scale, looks set to be the government's priority going into next year. That's something that's clearly needed –... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee at 90/$; what next? The Indian rupee breached 90/$ for the first time ever this week and we think further, albeit gradual, depreciation lies in store over the coming quarters. We now expect the rupee to end next year at... 5th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian easing cycles have further to run Tropical storms have caused disruption in Southeast Asia but should have only a modest economic impact and won’t sway upcoming policy meetings. GDP growth in the Philippines has slowed sharply as a... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI resumes easing cycle; one more rate cut to come The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today resumed its easing cycle and struck a fairly dovish tone. With inflation set to stay well-below target and growth set to ease over the coming quarters, we remain... 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year JGB yield set to reach 30-year high In the wake of the BoJ signaling a rate hike at its December meeting, the 10-year JGB yield has approached 2% and we think it will climb to a 30-year high of 2.5% over the next couple of years. We... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Australia & NZ: canaries in the markets coalmine? The market reaction to the apparent ends of the Australian and New Zealand easing cycles could provide a blueprint for how Treasuries and the US dollar will behave as the Fed winds up its own. 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
