China Economics Update Rerouting providing less of an offset Our updated estimates suggest that trade rerouting is so far doing less to insulate Chinese exports from US tariffs than in the past. That’s largely because rerouting via Mexico hasn’t picked up since... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea unpacked: the outlook for the year ahead Korea’s economy has rebounded strongly in recent months. However, we don’t expect this to last. Weaker exports, fading fiscal support and the continued downturn in the property market are likely to... 16th September 2025 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Prabowo risks deepening Indonesia’s economic problems The recent protests in Indonesia underscore deep-seated economic frustrations. Despite solid headline GDP growth in recent years, wages have been stagnant and the middle class has been shrinking... 15th September 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2025) The activity data point to a further loss of momentum last month. While some of this reflects temporary weather-related disruptions, underlying growth is clearly sliding, raising pressure on... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bond yields rising, tariff barriers climbing We're sceptical that the government's supply-side reform will succeed in pulling the economy out of deflation, suggesting the recent rise in government bond yields won't be sustained. And, while... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q4 Outlook, inflation bottoms out, China-India-US relations The main message from our Q4 India Economic Outlook published this week is that while punitive US tariffs will weigh on growth over the coming quarters, India is likely to remain a relative bright... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Does turmoil in Indonesia lift or lower chances of a rate cut? Bank Indonesia will meet next week under the cloud of recent protests and the sacking of respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. We expect officials to hold fire from further easing, not... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) India’s headline CPI inflation rose for the first time in ten months in August, but at just 2.1% it remains very low and we think it will only gradually rise back up to the RBI’s 4% target. This gives... 12th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Weak private credit demand drove a further weakening of bank loan growth in August. And growth in government bond issuance slowed for the first time this year, resulting in a slowdown in broad credit... 12th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Respite at the very long end of the yield curve may be brief We don’t think the falls in the yields of very long-dated government bonds will last much longer. 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP to choose a new leader, growth remains healthy PM Ishiba's successor will have to grapple with a politically-challenging environment when they take office early next month. But on the plus side, they will inherit a fairly resilient economy that... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Equities Update We don’t think there’s a bubble in China’s stock market We aren’t persuaded that there’s excessive exuberance in China’s stock market, despite some recent commentary. We continue to expect it to fare well for a while yet. 12th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Springtime in the Antipodes New business surveys suggest that economic momentum in Australia will remain solid through the second half of the year. However, we would caution that these surveys have recently overstated the... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will resume tightening this year While trade tensions have started to weigh on Japan’s exports, the wider economy has shrugged off these headwinds. With inflation still running hot, we expect the Bank of Japan to leave the door open... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Is Trump pushing India into China’s arms? The deterioration in Indo-US relations appears to have expedited New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing, as highlighted by Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to China in seven years last... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
