China Rapid Response China retaliates, risking further tariff escalation After initially promising unspecified "countermeasures", the Chinese authorities have now fleshed out their retaliation to the Trump administration's 10% tariff hike on all US imports from China. The... 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China gets off lightly on tariffs, for now The additional 10% tariff that Donald Trump has applied on Chinese goods will have a relatively modest impact on China’s economy, especially if the PBOC allows the renminbi to adjust. But this is... 3rd February 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia January PMIs, Korea Trade The January PMIs for Asia were generally weak, supporting our view that manufacturing activity and GDP growth in the region are likely to remain below trend in the near term. And with inflation back... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts not a panacea for Australia’s housing market Australia’s housing slowdown continued into the new year, as demand softened further. Although the prospect of imminent rate cuts could temporarily buoy buyer sentiment, we don’t expect a meaningful... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec./Q4 2024) 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with tariffs President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China from this coming Tuesday, (with the only partial exemption for Canadian energy... 2nd February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India’s Union Budget to provide limited growth boost Tax breaks included in India’s FY25/26 Union Budget announcement should provide some support to household consumption but, overall, the measures fall some way short of constituting major stimulus... 1st February 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Economics Weekly: China’s AI shock, Year of the Snake The launch of DeepSeek's new AI model had US markets reeling at the start of this week, but we don't think it’s a sign that China's AI technology is poised to overtake the US. And while snake years... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 25) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should accelerate over the near-term, driven by consumption-boosting policy support. But... 31st January 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Further easing ahead in Pakistan and Sri Lanka Pakistan’s central bank cut interest rates by 100bps at its scheduled meeting earlier this week. But with the economy recovering, inflation concerns continuing to linger and the central bank sounding... 31st January 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Can policymakers bring back the good times? We doubt that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big stimulus package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in tomorrow's Union Budget announcement. That will leave the onus... 31st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Structural labour shortages point to more rate hikes The Tokyo CPI suggests that the Bank of Japan’s Board will need to revise up their inflation forecasts yet again at the May meeting. And with the expansion in employment running on fumes as the... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will start cutting rates in February With Australia's underlying inflation surprising materially to the downside in Q4, we've brought forward our forecast for the RBA's first rate cut from May to February. The data clearly show that... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Dec. 24) & Tokyo CPI (Jan. 25) The end-month data rush vindicates the Bank’s decision to lift its policy rate last week and suggests that further tightening over the coming months is likely. 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (January 2025) Our Asia Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to... 30th January 2025 · 0 mins read
