China Economic Outlook Growth weak but stable China’s economy is much weaker than official figures suggest, but growth has held steady this year despite US tariffs. While both exports and fiscal spending will continue to support the economy over... 24th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Is the appreciation of the baht a threat to the Thai economy? Despite policymakers’ renewed concern over the Thai baht’s rise, there is little evidence that the appreciation of the currency is hurting the economy. We do not expect it to be a major drag on growth... 24th September 2025 · 8 mins read
RBI Watch RBI will reignite the easing cycle The hit to GDP growth from punitive US tariffs, along with a benign inflation outlook, sets the stage for the RBI to resume its easing cycle at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 1st... 24th September 2025 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold its fire as economy rebounds The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting ending on September 30th. After all, the economy is bouncing back more strongly than the Bank... 24th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 2025) Although the RBA won’t pay much heed to the pickup in headline inflation last month, the strength in core inflation will give it pause for thought. We expect the Bank to only cut rates twice more this... 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Are Indian households becoming overleveraged? Rising household debt in India should not be a major concern for now given the backdrop of falling interest rates. But it is a risk that will require close monitoring once the easing cycle turns... 23rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s stock market likely to weather the BoJ’s slow withdrawal While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is a smaller player in equities than it is in bonds, the central bank acquired lots of shares via its ETF programme. So, it’s hardly surprising the BoJ’s announcement on... 22nd September 2025 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Economy holding up, but growth remains weak Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up a touch last month, but the economy is still growing at less than 3.5% y/y. The services sector has been outperforming in recent months thanks... 22nd September 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How might the H-1B visa crackdown affect India? Viewed in an optimistic light, President Trump’s overhaul of the H-1B visa programme could benefit India’s economy if more high-skilled workers now stay in the country. But to the extent that... 22nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update More Chinese-made green tech is heading to the EU China’s exports of the New Three are still growing at a strong pace as an increase in shipments to the EU is helping to absorb the hit from US tariffs on trade volumes. While there are signs of... 22nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly MoF signals that fiscal policy will stay supportive The fiscal deficit across China’s two main budgets expanded almost 40% y/y over the past three months. This isn’t sustainable, and the pace of fiscal loosening will almost certainly slow over the... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia concerns shift to budget, CBSL to resume easing Indonesia’s latest budget for next year points to a slight widening of the deficit, compared with its earlier estimate. This, along with a statement today from the new finance minister, who called the... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly US trade talks resume, PM Modi at 75 Talks between US and Indian trade officials resumed this week in Delhi, hinting at a slight thawing in relations that have become acrimonious over the past couple of months. But while an encouraging... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to overshoot BoJ’s forecasts Given that Governor Ueda is still sounding very non-committal about the timing of the next rate hike, the two hawkish dissents at this week’s BoJ meeting could well prove to be a red herring. But with... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan inching towards tighter policy While the two dissents by BoJ Board members could be a red herring, we’re sticking to our long-held view that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle next month and lift rates to 1.5% by 2027. Note... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
