China Rapid Response China PMIs (Sep. 2025) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy accelerated this month, partly due to resilient exports. But with fiscal easing set to provide less of a prop over the coming months, we are sceptical that... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug. 25) While the August activity data confirm that Japan’s GDP declined this quarter, that follows a strong performance over the past year and we doubt it will prevent the BoJ from resuming its tightening... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace of disinflation The Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace at which inflation is moderating across Japan and we still believe that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle at its October meeting. 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Health care may not have a speedy recovery, despite tariff relief The share prices of some of the world’s largest health care companies have rallied a bit today, despite Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday of a tariff of 100% on US imports of branded or patented... 26th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs continued last month, with the restart of Fed easing and further declines in the dollar supporting bond inflows in particular. While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over... 26th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply uncertainties re-emerge as key driver of prices For all the recent focus on soft demand dynamics, developments on the supply side have been the main driver of oil prices this week. Heightened uncertainty is driving pessimism among US oil producers... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ceding developing country perks is a geopolitical play China's decision this week to forgo its developing country benefits at the WTO won't have significant economic implications, not least because the WTO has little power these days to compel members to... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Will the weak rupee constrain the RBI? The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision next week is likely to be a close call. While the weakness of the rupee is a consideration for the bank, external vulnerabilities are far smaller... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia-EU trade deal, Taiwan flaunts chips weapon Indonesia’s announcement of a trade deal with the European Union provided respite this week for a government that has been on the defensive with investors over the direction of policy. But it’s... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Data flashing mixed signals, New RBNZ governor With Australian inflation surprising to the upside in August, markets now expect the RBA to deliver just one more 25bp cut this cycle, rather than two. However, with business surveys showing output... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Tariff Announcement The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1st, the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products and a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks is not quite as big a... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturers starting to shift production to US Falling US-bound exports are a headwind to economic activity in Japan. But as long as firms are able to keep serving US customers via their US subsidiaries, the impact on corporate profits, investment... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Soft growth ahead, region to weather tariff threat Asia’s economies look set for further weak growth over the rest of this year and to the end of 2026, as tighter fiscal policy and softer exports outweigh resilient consumption, which is being... 25th September 2025 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Swiss-Japanese yield divergence Yields in Switzerland and Japan may diverge even further over the next couple of years. But we don’t think Japan’s escape from zero rates will diminish the yen’s relative appeal as a safe haven. 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily More upside for China’s stock market as its AI+ plan gets going China’s stock market got a boost today, as Alibaba announced its latest plans for AI. Despite the challenges faced by China’s economy, we suspect there is more upside for MSCI’s tech-heavy China Index... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
