Global Economics Update

Rare earths “deal” won’t be the final word

President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But...

12th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

Limited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are low

A deal with China is done, according to President Trump, but its scope seems to be limited to easing some recent non-tariff restrictions, including China’s rare earth export controls. The wider trade...

11th June 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Reflections on recent elections

Recent presidential elections in Poland, Romania and Korea have led to significant moves in their financial markets. But from a macro perspective, what also matters is the composition of the...

10th June 2025 · 4 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October

We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as...

10th June 2025 · 9 mins read

India Economic Outlook

India Outlook: Economic outperformance in the face of tariff threat

India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, making it a global outperformer. The recent sharp drop in inflation has enabled the Reserve...

9th June 2025 · 17 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (May 2025)

The slowdown in export growth in May should partially reverse this month, as it reflects the drop in US orders before the trade truce, which took time to feed through to actual shipments. But with...

9th June 2025 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (May 2025)

Headline inflation remained in negative territory last month but core inflation continued to recover and is now at its highest in almost a year. This improvement looks fragile, however, and we still...

9th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Consumers still spending, births falling

Japanese households are doing better than had seemed to be the case, with data this week giving upbeat signals on both wages and consumer spending. They are not, however, having babies: fifty years...

6th June 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Equity outperformance to fade, RBI’s bumper rate cut

Despite the bright near-term economic outlook for India, we suspect Indian equities’ recent strong run will prove short-lived. Meanwhile, we think that the RBI's easing cycle is now over following its...

6th June 2025 · 4 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China Weekly: Rare earths to remain a flashpoint despite Xi-Trump call

The long-awaited call between Xi and Trump seems to have averted any immediate risk of the Geneva truce falling apart, though it doesn't make a lasting settlement between the two more likely. One...

6th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: Korea’s struggling economy, Indonesia’s fiscal stimulus

Korea’s new president Lee Jae-myung faces an uphill battle to revive the flagging economy. GDP shrank in Q1 and early Q2 data suggest the economy may already be in recession. The stage is set for a...

6th June 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA

With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank...

6th June 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

RBI ends easing cycle with a bang

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps (to 5.50%) while also changing its policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” today are clear...

6th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Vietnam: limited impact from scrapping two-child policy

The abolition of Vietnam’s controversial two-child policy will not lead to a sharp rise in the number of children being born, and will have only a small economic impact.

5th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

How will EMs respond to rising imports from China?

Emerging markets’ imports from China have surged since 2019 and this is likely to continue as punitive US tariffs push Chinese exporters to look to alternative markets. EM governments have, so far...

5th June 2025 · 13 mins read