Capital Daily US Treasury yields unlikely to drop much further The sharp fall in interest rate expectations and long-term government bond yields over recent days in response to renewed US-China tensions has brough the 10-year Treasury yield to around its lowest... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Another look at China’s new export controls A closer inspection suggests that the scope of China’s new controls on rare earths is narrower than many, including us, had initially feared. But they still give officials plenty of leverage over... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s inflation target is still fit for purpose India is closing in on a decade of inflation targeting and the current framework is up for review. The success of the Reserve Bank in keeping inflation lower and less volatile since the introduction... 14th October 2025 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore’s growth set to ease but MAS to stay on hold Singapore’s central bank kept policy settings unchanged today and its accompanying statement was a touch hawkish. With the economy set to slow rather than slump, inflation likely to rise gradually... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Sep. 2025) Although the RBA sounded less confident about the policy space it has to lower rates, we still expect it to deliver two more 25bp cuts in the months ahead. 14th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions (and answers) on rare earth elements With China’s rare earth export controls back in the spotlight, this Update answers seven key questions on the in-vogue elements and the economic consequences of disruption to their supply. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in September and with the outlook generally benign and the economy set to cool, we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle in the... 13th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US-China re-escalation fallout: two key lessons Moves in the US dollar and global equities since last week give an indication of how renewed US-China tensions, should they persist, would affect key financial markets. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Sep. 2025) Exports held up last month, with headline y/y growth rising to a six-month high and shipments also picking up on a seasonally adjusted basis. While this resilience underscores the ability of Chinese... 13th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Real wages not falling as much as official data suggest Real wages haven’t fallen as sharply as the official data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare would suggest. Nonetheless, it is striking that workers are not benefitting much from... 13th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update A high-stakes game of chicken President Trump has threatened to hit back hard if China doesn’t back away from the trade restrictions it announced last week. This latest dispute could still blow over if cool heads prevail – a... 13th October 2025 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebounds; blast from the past for yen & Argentina While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ plays it safe; China’s oil stockpiling frenzy continues The ongoing and sizeable build-up of oil stockpiles in China is helping to counteract underlying sluggish oil demand growth, and helps to explain why oil prices have not fallen as far as might have... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Soft holiday data underscore weak consumption outlook Retail sales growth slowed over the summer and there were no signs of a revival in consumer activity during the recent National Day holiday. With property prices still falling and the labour market... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Coalition Talks The departure of long-standing partner Komeito from Japan’s ruling coalition means that the election of Sanae Takaichi as PM is no longer guaranteed but we still expect her to declare victory... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai deflation risks GDP growth in Vietnam held firm at 8.2% y/y in Q3, underpinned by resilient exports despite the 20% US tariffs introduced in August. The strength of the export sector likely reflects increased re... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
