Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will hike rates to 4.35% The recent pick-up in economic activity and inflation suggests that the neutral rate of interest may now be closer to 4% instead of the RBA’s estimate of around 3.5%. Given that the RBA believes that... 4th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2025) The modest rise in New Zealand’s jobless rate in Q4 masks the fact that underlying labour market conditions have started to improve. That said, we still think policy tightening won’t be on the Bank’s... 3rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: will the equity boom lift the economy? Korea’s equity boom is unlikely to deliver a major boost to Korean consumers or the broader economy. But it is sending a clear signal about the external outlook. The rally reflects Korea’s central... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Rate cutter’s remorse not a threat to most bond markets Australian bonds have been battered lately, and its currency boosted, by the prospect of the country’s central bank reversing course on monetary easing. But even though it’s now followed through with... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA raises rates, leaves door ajar for further hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia struck an unambiguously hawkish tone when it raised rates by 25bp at its meeting today. Our base case is that the Bank will deliver only one more 25bp hike this year, but... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 2026) The RBA continued to sound concerned about rising capacity pressures when it lifted its cash rate by 25bp today. There is a growing risk that rates will need to be taken above the 4.10% peak we have... 3rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand: economic woes to continue after election Whichever party wins Thailand’s general election on 8th February will inherit a weak economy, tight fiscal constraints, and deep-seated structural and demographic challenges. The continued shift... 2nd February 2026 · 17 mins read
Japan Economics Focus BoJ policy rate will rise to 2.5% over coming decade We now believe that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to 2.5% during the 2030s as inflation settles at higher levels, potential growth picks up and a shift in incentives alters the balance between... 2nd February 2026 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong housing market bolsters case for RBA hikes Australia’s house price rally maintained solid momentum in January, while growth in advertised rents accelerated further. With the housing sector likely to feed inflationary pressures for a while to... 2nd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (January) The January manufacturing PMI readings for Asian economies remain consistent with generally steady growth in manufacturing. However, the PMIs have recently been a poor guide to the hard activity data... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jan. 2026) The pickup in RatingDog services PMI for January only partially offsets the weakness in the official survey data. The big picture is still that the economy appears to have lost some momentum last... 2nd February 2026 (Updated 4th February 2026) · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India’s Union Budget: function over fanfare In an unspectacular FY26/27 Union Budget summed up by the fall in equities since the announcement, the Finance Ministry has unveiled small boosts to spending in politically-sensitive areas and made up... 1st February 2026 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan 26) China’s growth slowed in December, with the economy expanding by just 3.1% in 2025. Export growth and fiscal support will continue to provide a significant (albeit smaller) prop to the economy over... 30th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly US doubles down on climate disengagement The loss of US funding for a host of UN climate bodies could slow progress on the scientific study of global warming and further undermine the already far-from-optimal international cooperation on... 30th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (January 2026) Our Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect most Asian economies to record solid growth in 2026. Robust demand for AI-related products... 30th January 2026 · 0 mins read
China Economics Weekly End of “three red lines“ won’t revive the property market This week, China’s government ended the “three red lines” regulatory requirements for property developers that sparked China’s property crisis. But this easing is mostly symbolic – it won’t change... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
