China Economics Weekly Concerns about bank margins don’t preclude easing As the tailwind from fiscal loosening diminishes, the case for more monetary support will increase. And while the PBOC’s latest policy report flags narrowing bank margins as a concern, this may... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK minutes, Malaysia Q3 GDP, Korean defence boost The Bank of Korea’s latest minutes show the central bank has become more upbeat on the near-term growth outlook and more concerned about rising property prices in Seoul. This reinforces our view that... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly New inflation forecasts, Bihar election implications Headline inflation in India fell to a near 26-year low in October. Although this probably marks the bottom, we now think it will average just 3.0% in 2026, from 3.4% previously. That will allow the... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: growth to struggle as consumers pull back Thailand’s recovery from the pandemic has been one of the weakest in Asia and, with the boost from consumer spending fading as households deleverage, the economy is running short of growth drivers. We... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities’ relative resilience to the AI nerves China’s stock market has fared better than many as investor confidence in the AI boom has faltered, despite having benefited from that boom this year. We suspect it would continue to outperform the US... 14th November 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Oct. 2025) The collapse in investment spending continued last month, though we still think it is likely to partially reverse before long. More worrying is that output-side measures of activity, which had held up... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly The risks from escalating tensions with China There is a risk that the recent tensions with China escalate into a full-blown trade spat akin to the conflict around the Senkaku islands in the early 2010s. There are several avenues through which... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too soon to call time on the RBA’s easing cycle With economic sentiment improving, employment rebounding, and policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish, markets see only slim chances of further RBA rate cuts. However, we suspect the latest data... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Bank loan growth continued to weaken in October, with the consumer loan subsidy scheme failing to put a floor under household loan growth. Alongside the continued slowdown in government bond issuance... 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: wider current account leaves peso vulnerable The Philippines’ current account deficit has widened to more than 4% of GDP and it is being increasingly financed by more volatile forms of foreign capital. This helps to explain why the peso has... 13th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2025) The renewed tightening of the labour market last month will feed the Bank’s concerns about elevated capacity pressures and keep rate cuts off the agenda in the near-term. 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Delays to US LNG won’t prevent gas prices from falling A combination of delays to LNG export capacity in the US and greater demand for natural gas from AI data centres will, all else equal, constrain the supply of LNG over the coming years. However... 12th November 2025 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 25) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a near 26-year low in October and with inflation set to remain well below the 4% target over the coming quarters, we continue to expect the RBI to... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher defence spending in EMs: the macro impact Defence spending across much of Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East is set to rise in the coming years, driven by heightened regional tensions and US pressure on allies to take... 11th November 2025 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Update Are cheap imports from China lowering Asian inflation? We aren’t convinced that cheaper imports from China had much to do with the recent sharp fall in inflation in the rest of Asia. While we expect inflation to remain soft next year, that reflects our... 11th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Car industry still set to lose importance Japanese carmakers are rapidly losing global market share as the country’s vehicle industry is a laggard in the rollout of electric vehicles. While the industry’s share of GDP has held up well in... 11th November 2025 · 3 mins read
