Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing steady, but tariffs cloud the outlook The EM manufacturing PMI ticked up in March on the back of a pick-up in China as well as a continued recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. But tariffs present a major headwind to EMs’ industrial... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Tariffs would reinforce case for further easing The recent sharp drop in headline CPI inflation means that the Reserve Bank is primed to cut the repo rate again at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 9th April. And barring a debilitating... 1st April 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia March PMIs, Korea Trade The March PMIs for Asia were generally subdued, supporting our view that GDP growth in the region is set to remain below trend in the near term. And with inflation back to target in most economies, we... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Reserve Bank of Australia will only cut rates to 3.6% While the RBA is becoming increasingly confident that inflation will sustainably return to target, we still expect its easing cycle to be shallower than most anticipate. 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Apr. 25) 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA rate cuts won’t do much for housing affordability Australian house price growth remained soft in March, amid still-weak housing demand. Although the RBA’s easing cycle could help deliver a shift in momentum later this year, stretched affordability is... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) With consumers seemingly keeping spending on a tight leash, there is a risk that the RBA will loosen policy a bit more than we currently expect this cycle. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q1 2025) While business conditions were unchanged in the latest Tankan survey, the survey suggests that an increasingly overheating economy is creating strong price pressures. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Central banks buying more gold ≠ ditching the dollar Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Climate policy falls down the agenda The recent scrapping of the carbon tax in Canada shows that the political pushback against climate policy is certainly not just confined to the United States. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Mar. 2025) The PMIs suggest that infrastructure spending is ramping up again and that exports have so far remained resilient in the face of US tariffs. But the surveys are still consistent with slower GDP growth... 31st March 2025 (Updated 1st April 2025) · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 25) Mounting US tariffs will add to a broader slowdown in exports this year. Domestic headwinds are also set to persist. A significant loosening of fiscal policy will help support the economy, but we don... 28th March 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US tariffs on China set to escalate further China is very likely to be among the countries hit with additional US tariffs next week, potentially lifting average duties as high as 60%. Unless the renminbi weakens significantly in response, our... 28th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Tariffs centre stage as rupiah wobbles Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on all automotive imports from April 3rd could have significant consequences for parts of Asia, particularly Korea and Japan, where auto exports account for... 28th March 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Trump’s triple tariff threat We will learn next week whether or not India's concessions to President Trump work in staving off (or reducing) a US reciprocal tariff. But India will take cold comfort from the fact that Japan and... 28th March 2025 · 3 mins read
