Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) The slight fall in Swiss headline inflation in October will come as a big surprise to the SNB, which expected inflation to increase markedly in the fourth quarter. However, we think that inflation is... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France & Spain: same budget impasse, diverging debt Governments in France and Spain are both struggling to get 2026 budgets through parliament and significant fiscal consolidation is unlikely in either country. But while France’s debt ratio will trend... 31st October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hold steady Norway’s economic data have been a touch weaker than Norges Bank expected recently, but not by enough to prompt a rate cut next week. We’re forecasting the next cut in March 2026. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on hold over coming quarters The Riksbank will keep the policy rate at 1.75% next week and, despite the recent strong economic data, will continue to say that the policy rate will stay at its current level “for some time to come... 29th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tensions simmering between the EU and China Tensions between the EU and China over rare earths and semiconductors, which continued to simmer this week, could weigh on euro-zone industry, particularly the defence and auto sectors. Next week, the... 24th October 2025 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB heading for negative rates (but no others following) We think it is just a matter of time before the SNB returns to negative policy rates as inflation is close to zero and geopolitical risks may put upward pressure on the franc. But negative rates will... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Small fiscal loosening in the euro-zone next year Draft 2026 budget plans submitted to the European Commission this week point to a moderate loosening of fiscal policy next year. In practice we think that the degree of policy loosening will be... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s worrying deficit, Germany‘s timid reforms Even if it avoids early elections, France looks set to pass a budget which reduces the deficit only fractionally next year and President Macron’s prized pension reforms are now at risk of being partly... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, but we don’t think that it will do much to raise... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (September) CPIF inflation edged down in September and is likely to fall much more significantly next year – to around just 1%. Despite that, we think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate on hold for the next... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No sign of China import flood; Italy deficit back at 3% The latest data show that there is little sign of a flood of cheap Chinese goods hitting the euro-zone as a result of US tariffs. Meanwhile, the new deficit projections released by the Italian... 3rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Swiss inflation to be stuck at zero Switzerland’s inflation remained at just 0.2% in September and it is likely to average close to zero over the coming years. This is in part due to temporary factors, such as reductions in the mortgage... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) Switzerland’s headline inflation rate once again remained at 0.2% in September, but we think it will fall back to zero by early next year. Accordingly, we expect the SNB to cut interest rates again... 2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB "in a good place", for now... We think that the ECB will change its view that interest rates are “in a good place” next year. Growth looks set to remain slow by international standards, and we suspect that it will be weaker than... 29th September 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Weak recovery despite lower interest rates The extension of the ECB easing cycle into 2026 will support real estate markets. However, a softer economic outlook and the narrow spread of property to government bond yields mean even our upwardly... 29th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no... 26th September 2025 · 8 mins read
