Europe Economics Update Deflation risk to hang over the SNB We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (September 2024) Core inflation in Norway was again below Norges Bank’s forecast in September, strengthening the case for it to start cutting interest rates this year. 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Consumption to drive Sweden’s recovery Sweden’s economy is likely to see a strong rebound next year as consumption will benefit from fiscal stimulus and lower household interest expenditure. We think that the recovery will encourage the... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (September) September’s drop in inflation in Sweden will reinforce the Riksbank’s inclination to keep cutting interest rates at the next few meetings. 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) The unexpectedly sharp fall in Switzerland’s headline and core inflation in September will cement the SNB’s dovish stance and supports our view that the Bank will cut its key policy rate by at least... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October ECB cut not a done deal A 25bp interest rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting in mid-October is now more-or-less fully priced into the market. But while the odds of a cut have risen, it is far from a done deal. Much will... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to cut rates by at least another 50bp While the SNB only cut the policy rate by 25bp today to 1.0%, the accompanying statement was very dovish and indicated that there are at least two more rate cuts on the way, probably in 25bp... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sept. 2024) The SNB’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 1.0% today shows that it prefers a gradual approach to policy loosening, but the accompanying statement indicates clearly that further cuts are on... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank won’t cut as far as it expects The Riksbank’s decision to cut by 25bp today to 3.25% was all but guaranteed, but the accompanying statement was surprisingly dovish. Policymakers said the policy rate could be cut faster and further... 25th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (September 2024) 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Industrial to outperform as muted recovery gets underway After two disappointing years, commercial property values have stabilised. However, the recovery is set to be weak. We think yield falls in the coming years will be small compared to previous... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to match Fed’s bumper rate cut We think SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan will probably use his last meeting to once again surprise markets by cutting the policy rate by 50bp to 0.75%. Policymakers will be unhappy with the franc’s recent... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank still hawkish The Norges Bank left rates unchanged today and shifted its guidance only very slightly in a dovish direction. Whereas the Bank does not expect to cut rates until Q1 next year, we think it is likely to... 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to continue loosening policy this year Unlike their counterparts in the Fed, policymakers at the Riksbank have ruled out making a bumper 50bp rate cut anytime soon. Instead, they are likely to cut their key policy rate by 25bp at next week... 18th September 2024 · 5 mins read
