Europe Economic Outlook One and done for the ECB Provided that the deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz results in a sustained recovery in energy flows, the damage to economic activity in the euro-zone will prove to be mild and brief. Excluding... 23rd June 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB rates will remain unchanged, all eyes on the franc The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at zero today and we think it will keep rates on hold over the next couple of years. Its commentary shows that the Bank is confident that the current monetary... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Suites of scenarios, models and European central banks The ECB's updated projections imply that at least one more interest rate hike will be necessary. But the absence of any clear guidance in yesterday's ECB press conference was arguably a dovish signal... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB set to look through energy price shock Despite the ECB’s rate hike today, we think the SNB will leave its policy rate unchanged at zero next week. Higher energy prices have already pushed up energy inflation but overall inflation remains... 11th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus European student housing outperformance has further to run The two-decade period of student accommodation outperformance in Europe is set to continue, supported by higher income returns, favourable structural demand drivers and still-tight supply. Within... 9th June 2026 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2026) Prime office values continued to grow strongly in Q1, in contrast to a further slowdown in the retail and industrial sectors. These two sectors are also more vulnerable to the impacts of the Iran war... 3rd June 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2026) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q1 as the Iran war pushed alternative asset yields higher. Looking ahead, valuations could worsen further and property yields could come under upward... 28th May 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Would ECB rate hikes be a mistake? With interest rate hikes by the ECB looking likely, we are often asked whether this would be a mistake, with unfavourable comparisons made to previous ECB monetary policy decisions. But there are... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB’s balancing act Data released this week add to the evidence that the hit to the economy from higher energy prices could be a bit bigger than we have assumed in our baseline forecasts. But the upside risks to... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ energy import bill rising, military production booming This week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the jump in the EU's energy import bill since the conflict in the Middle East began, but in our baseline forecast the increase... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation... 10th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s borrowing costs in the spotlight again The rise in energy prices and the slight loss of popularity of Giorgia Meloni’s government have caused Italy’s bond yields to rise more than France's since the start of the Iran conflict. We now think... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Effects of Iran conflict beginning to show up There were clear signs this week that the Iran conflict is causing inflation and inflation expectations to rise in the euro-zone. Next week we expect to learn that headline inflation jumped from 1.9%... 27th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update No need for SNB to respond to energy shock Higher energy prices will push headline inflation up in Switzerland this year, but we think that it will remain well within the SNB’s target range. So rather than raising interest rates as is... 26th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes now the “base case” In light of this week’s further rise in energy prices and damage to Qatar’s energy infrastructure we have revised our euro-zone forecasts. In our new “base case” the ECB hikes rates three times this... 20th March 2026 · 8 mins read
