Europe Economics Update Second act for negative rates in Switzerland While it will be close call, we think the SNB is most likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp next week, bringing it back below zero. That would leave little room for more rate cuts further ahead. 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank in no rush to start cutting We expect Norges Bank to wait a bit longer before it finally starts to cut interest rates. And as the economy is growing at a decent pace and the labour market is still tight, the Bank is likely to... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank likely to wait for uncertainty to clear On balance, we think the Riksbank is likely to wait until its August meeting before cutting interest rates again in order to get greater clarity on the outlook for the economy. After a 25bp cut in... 11th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence... 10th June 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Lower inflation in Europe, but not lower yields Below-target inflation in the euro-zone and deflation in Switzerland bring back memories of the 2010s, but the drivers of low inflation are fundamentally different this time and we don’t see much... 3rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) Weaker rental growth and only a small fall in prime yields meant capital value growth slowed in Q1 in most of Europe. Looking ahead, while most European commercial property assets are not directly... 22nd May 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q1 this year as alternative asset yields rose while prime property yields edged slightly lower. Looking ahead, we think there is limited scope for falls in... 15th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q1 2025) Switzerland’s GDP growth shocked to the upside in the first quarter and grew by 0.7% q/q, shaking off concerns that trade uncertainty would weigh on the economy. This means the SNB is more likely to... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2025) Euro-zone GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q1 but that was partly due to temporary tariff front-running effects. And while higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth... 9th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the UK-US deal a good omen for the EU? EU policymakers won’t have felt too excited about the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday. The deal is limited in scope, the details are yet to be finalised, and the EU might find it more challenging... 9th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (May 2025) While the Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% today, policymakers indicated that a rate cut is likely this year given the weakness of the economy. We now think that they are likely to cut... 8th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) Sweden’s CPIF inflation was unchanged in April which will give the Riksbank little cause for concern going into its policy decision tomorrow. We expect it to keep the policy rate at 2.25%. 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Still little sign of tariff impact, Spanish blackout hit Data released this week suggest that US tariffs have not had a noticeable impact on euro-zone activity yet. But we still think they will cause GDP growth to grind to a halt in the next six months... 2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank & Norges Bank to hold, downside risks rising Headwinds are gathering for the Swedish economy, and we expect the Riksbank to strike a dovish tone in its statement next week. But it will probably stop short of cutting the policy rate as it waits... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish industrial real estate prospects remain poor Stockholm was one of the worst performing industrial markets in western Europe last year. And despite our relatively upbeat outlook for the Swedish economy, we think the coming years will herald more... 29th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain & Sweden GDP (Q1) Spain’s rapid economic growth (+0.6% q/q in Q1) is likely to continue for some time yet, despite trade uncertainty. While consumption and government spending were weaker than expected in Q1, we think... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
