Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q4) Data published today show that the economy contracted by 0.6% q/q in Q4 as the resilience previously reported towards the end of last year has been revised away. With the more timely data for December... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we nearing a trough for Scandinavian investment? Near term economic headwinds suggest the slowdown in investment activity in Scandinavia will continue in 2023. However, with policy rates near a peak, and improving economic activity and falling bond... 23rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc likely to remain broadly stable We had previously forecast the Swiss franc to rise against the euro in the first half of the year as we thought the ECB would raise interest rates a bit less than the market anticipated and that there... 20th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (January 2023) 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening nearly over The Norges Bank eased off the brakes today by leaving policy on hold, but signalled that it will raise its policy rate at the next meeting in March. We suspect that will be the final hike in this... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank, Riksbank and ECB to converge on 3% With economic activity and inflation both ending last year a bit stronger than anticipated, central banks are on track to deliver more policy tightening in the coming weeks, beginning with a 25bp hike... 13th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Dec.) Yet another larger-than-expected increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation and in the core rate suggest that policymakers are highly likely to raise rates by 50bp in February. 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch One (more) and done The Norges Bank is one step from ending its tightening cycle. We expect it to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to a peak of 3%. After that it is likely to pause while it waits to assess the... 12th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.) The continued strength of core inflation will encourage the Norges Bank to press on with another 25bp interest rate increase next week. While there is still some more upside risk to underlying... 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Contrasting outlooks for Swiss and Swedes The latest data underline Sweden is suffering both a sharper slowdown and higher inflation than Switzerland. Meanwhile, we expect to learn next week that underlying inflation remains uncomfortably... 6th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Dec.) Headline inflation in Switzerland fell in December but the rise in the core rate will be a concern for SNB policymakers. We still think that the Bank will raise rates by just 25bp in March, compared... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss money supply, Swedish surveys The recent jump in money growth in Switzerland doesn't change our view that the SNB will raise interest rates only once more, to a peak of 1.25%, which would be lower than is priced into markets... 22nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Sharper value falls to come in 2023 Property values in Scandinavia and Switzerland have taken a hit as yields jumped in recent quarters. With valuations still stretched, we are forecasting a further 50bps and 30bps of rises at the all... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Central banks unfinished in their battle with inflation Rate hikes were announced by many central banks this week, including the SNB and Norges Bank which raised rates by 50bp and 25bp respectively. However, inflation forecasts issued by the central banks... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB hikes by 50bp, hints at more to come The SNB’s 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, was in line with expectations but, more importantly, the Bank also raised its medium-term inflation forecast slightly, hinting that policymakers believe future... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read