Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (July)

Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in July at 1.3%, keeping it below the SNB’s Q3 forecast of 1.5%. Reassuringly for policymakers, private services inflation fell for the first time in six...

2nd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden GDP (Q2)

Preliminary data released this morning show that the Swedish economy contracted by 0.8% q/q in Q2, more than offsetting the 0.7% increase in Q1. The data were significantly weaker than expected by...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (June)

The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, dropped to just 1.3% in June, almost half the level in May and the lowest level since the end of 2020. This was far below the consensus forecast of 1...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Markets Update

Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly

We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years.

11th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Sweden REIT distress unlikely to derail recovery

The downgrading of Sweden’s SBB to selective default last week is the latest development for a property market that has faced some of the most acute debt refinancing pressure in Europe. The saga will...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norway CPI (June 2024)

The continued decline in inflation in Norway supports our view that Norges Bank will start cutting interest rates before the end of this year, rather than waiting until 2025 as its current guidance...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with...

9th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (June)

Switzerland’s inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May, but concerningly for policymakers, private services inflation rose for the fourth time in five months. We think the increasing...

4th July 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar treads water ahead of US non-farm payrolls

The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2024)

The Riksbank’s decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected and does not suggest that policymakers are regretting their decision to cut in May. Instead, today’s statement says that they want to...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank to leave rates and guidance unchanged

Having cut the policy rate by 25bp at its last meeting, we think the Riksbank will stick with its guidance that it will keep rates on hold next week. But with inflation likely to fall below 2% in the...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

On the mend

The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB cuts rates again, but likely to be last one this year

The SNB’s decision to cut the policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was probably more influenced by the appreciation of the franc over the last two months than any perceived easing in domestic inflation...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norges Bank Policy Announcement (June 2024)

Norges Bank’s verbal guidance and updated interest rate projections reinforce the message that it won’t start cutting interest rates until the end of the year at the earliest.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June. 2024)

Today’s decision by the SNB to reduce its policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was correctly anticipated by two thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters. (We were in the minority anticipating a hold.) In...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read