Global Economics Rapid Response US Tariff Announcement The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1st, the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products and a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks is not quite as big a... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Swiss-Japanese yield divergence Yields in Switzerland and Japan may diverge even further over the next couple of years. But we don’t think Japan’s escape from zero rates will diminish the yen’s relative appeal as a safe haven. 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (September 2025) While the SNB kept its policy rate at zero today and left its inflation forecast unchanged, we still expect policymakers to cut the policy rate into negative territory over the coming quarters. We... 25th September 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (September 2025) The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp to 1.75% today but signalled that this is the end of the loosening cycle. We think rates will now remain on hold until late next year, at which point we have... 23rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak start to Q3; ECB unlikely to change QT for now This week’s data show that the euro-zone economy continued to expand only slowly at the start of Q3. We forecast growth to pick up a bit in the coming quarters but not as much as the consensus expects... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to avoid negative rates… for now SNB policymakers have recently pushed back against the prospect of lowering interest rates below zero, so they are likely to leave the policy rate at zero next week. However, we think inflation will... 18th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (September 2025) The dovish signal sent by Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 4.0% was accompanied by its more hawkish view on the interest rate outlook. We expect the Bank to leave interest... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to follow ECB and keep rates on hold The Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 2% next week as recent economic data has been stronger than expected, reducing the need for further loosening. While the risks are towards are a further cut... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly New French PM, German “autumn of reform” Hints by France’s new prime minister that he will water down plans for budget cuts emphasise that meaningful fiscal tightening in the coming years is very unlikely and support our view that French... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will wait before cutting again Norges Bank signalled last month that it would cut interest rates later this year, but we expect it to leave policy unchanged next week. It will probably reduce interest rates before year-end, but any... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Thirty-year EZ bond yields are not such a worry Yields on long-dated government bonds have been a talking point for investors again this week but we don’t think the increase will have much impact on the economic outlook for the euro-zone. Next week... 5th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (August) Headline inflation was unchanged in August and is still likely to remain close to, but above, zero over the coming months. While today’s data and recent comments by SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Revisiting our Sweden GDP forecast Despite the strong rebound in Q2, Sweden’s economy has fared worse so far this year than many expected. We now forecast it to grow only moderately over the remainder of the year, before returning to... 3rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Question marks over recovery, small progress on trade Economic data released this week cast some doubt on our forecast that euro-zone GDP growth will accelerate in the latter part of this year. Meanwhile, the EU-US joint statement on trade, also released... 22nd August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2025) Tariff uncertainty weighed on investment and industrial property in particular in Q2. However, we don’t expect much recovery in H2 as long-term interest rates rise and economic growth softens. Indeed... 20th August 2025 · 0 mins read
