Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Easing core inflation drove headline inflation lower in July, but we don’t expect it to fall much further this year. Despite inflation now sitting within the 0-2% range the SNB equates with price... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q2 resilience unlikely to last, but inflation to stay high National data released so far suggest that euro-zone GDP rose in Q2, but with activity surveys very weak in July and the full effect of monetary tightening still to be felt, we continue to expect GDP... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland’s inflation spectre slain Swiss inflation has fallen sharply this year to below 2% and we expect it to stay there for the foreseeable future. In contrast to the SNB’s view, we think second-round effects on wages will be quite... 18th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 7th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) The fall in inflation in June was smaller than the SNB had expected and SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s comments after the meeting two weeks ago suggest a further hike in the policy rate in September is... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More EZ stagflation ahead; hawkish central banks We think the euro-zone will experience a more severe case of stagflation than most expect, and inflation and survey data due next week are likely to support that view. Elsewhere, the SNB and Norges... 23rd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss prime offices to trail the rest of Europe Swiss offices have already seen the second sharpest price correction across the major European markets. And with stretched valuations set to face renewed pressure from rising bond yields, we think... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The fall and fall of the Swedish krona The rapid depreciation of the Swedish krona has pushed the currency down to its lowest ever level against the euro. Worse still, we do not think the krona is significantly below “fair value”, nor do... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB hikes by 25bp and signals more to come The 25bp rate hike announced by the SNB this morning was smaller than the 50bp hike we had predicted. But the accompanying statement and upward revision to inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank steps up the pace, more hikes to come Today’s 50bp rate hike by the Norges Bank, taking its policy rate to 3.75%, was accompanied by new hawkish guidance and projections. As a result, we have revised up our already above-consensus... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, weak economy The ECB’s messaging this week was hawkish and suggests that the risks are skewed towards the ECB’s deposit rate rising above our forecast to a peak of 3.75%. Recent data support the Bank’s view that... 16th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation falling but SNB set to hike rates further Policymakers are likely to raise the policy rate by 50bp to 2% next Thursday, despite inflation falling sharply this year. And SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s view that Switzerland’s neutral interest... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Employment will not defy gravity forever We learnt this week that the euro-zone fell into recession but Eurostat confirmed that employment rose sharply in Q1. The labour market seems to have remained quite strong in April and May but we... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation falling; Sweden set for recession Data published this week showed that euro-zone core inflation fell for the second consecutive month in May, but it still looks likely that the ECB will raise interest rates again in June and probably... 2nd June 2023 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations continue to improve but remain stretched European property valuations continued to improve in Q1 on the back of further increases in property yields as well as falls in government bond yields. Nonetheless, all office and industrial markets... 31st May 2023 · 5 mins read
