Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Inflation at the target but growth will be weak The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think... 23rd June 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe Commercial Property Outlook: Insulated from tariffs but outlook for property values is weak European commercial property is relatively insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, but property markets are also not likely to see substantial benefit from more fiscal spending. In all, our... 19th June 2025 · 27 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June 2025) The SNB decision to cut by just 25bp today means that it has avoided negative rates for the time being. But we think that continued deflation over the coming months will prompt policymakers to cut... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2025) While the Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp this morning and suggested there was a reasonable chance of a further cut this year, the outlook is uncertain and underlying economic conditions aren’t... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Denmark to pharmaceutical downturn? Denmark’s exceptional growth in recent years has been driven by one sector (pharmaceuticals) and one firm within that sector (Novo Nordisk). Its output has declined this year, raising questions about... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second act for negative rates in Switzerland While it will be close call, we think the SNB is most likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp next week, bringing it back below zero. That would leave little room for more rate cuts further ahead. 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank in no rush to start cutting We expect Norges Bank to wait a bit longer before it finally starts to cut interest rates. And as the economy is growing at a decent pace and the labour market is still tight, the Bank is likely to... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank likely to wait for uncertainty to clear On balance, we think the Riksbank is likely to wait until its August meeting before cutting interest rates again in order to get greater clarity on the outlook for the economy. After a 25bp cut in... 11th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence... 10th June 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Lower inflation in Europe, but not lower yields Below-target inflation in the euro-zone and deflation in Switzerland bring back memories of the 2010s, but the drivers of low inflation are fundamentally different this time and we don’t see much... 3rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) Weaker rental growth and only a small fall in prime yields meant capital value growth slowed in Q1 in most of Europe. Looking ahead, while most European commercial property assets are not directly... 22nd May 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q1 this year as alternative asset yields rose while prime property yields edged slightly lower. Looking ahead, we think there is limited scope for falls in... 15th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q1 2025) Switzerland’s GDP growth shocked to the upside in the first quarter and grew by 0.7% q/q, shaking off concerns that trade uncertainty would weigh on the economy. This means the SNB is more likely to... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2025) Euro-zone GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q1 but that was partly due to temporary tariff front-running effects. And while higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth... 9th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the UK-US deal a good omen for the EU? EU policymakers won’t have felt too excited about the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday. The deal is limited in scope, the details are yet to be finalised, and the EU might find it more challenging... 9th May 2025 · 7 mins read
