Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NATO retaliation; Riksbank eyeing front-loading? Even if reports that Russia is close to cutting off the supply of natural gas to Finland prove accurate, Finland seems well placed to replace Russian flows with LNG imports from elsewhere. So, while... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in April was partly due to high energy and food prices but also because of broadening price pressures. We expect the core rate to remain above... 12th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in core inflation in April raises the chances that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening at its next rate decision, in June. Markets Drop-In (11 th... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Schlegel gets a pay rise; new split at the Riksbank The fact that the successor to Fritz Zurbrügg as Vice-Chair of the SNB’s Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, is an SNB stalwart means the looming changes at the top are unlikely to change the decision... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Higher rates to squeeze Copenhagen office values With economic concerns worsening in the euro-zone, we expect that the Danish economy will not be immune. And we think that the shifts in the interest rate outlook in particular will have the most... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to resume its tightening cycle in June As was widely expected, the Norges Bank left interest rates on hold at +0.75% today and all but confirmed that “the policy rate will […] be raised in June”. After June, we forecast two more rate hikes... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Uncandid Ingves, Norges Bank to take a breather In comparison to the excitement caused by the Riksbank’s meeting this week, the Norges Bank’s policy announcement next Thursday is likely to be a more prosaic affair. Indeed, while Governor Wolden... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to pause next week ahead of June hike We think that the Norges Bank will keep interest rates on hold, at +0.75%, next Thursday, before resuming its tightening cycle in June. We forecast one rate hike per quarter this year and next, which... 28th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank completes “Operation Reverse Ferret” As we had expected, the Riksbank finally bowed to economic logic in its April meeting by raising the repo rate, to +0.25%, and announcing that it will begin to shrink its balance sheet this year... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Under pressure from weaker euro-zone growth The higher prevalence of renewables in the energy mixes than in most of Europe means the squeeze on incomes from higher gas prices will be less acute in Switzerland and the Nordics, and Norway even... 27th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Salmon-omics; Riksbank set to hike We expect the Riksbank to raise the repo rate by 25bps, to +0.25%, next week. But whereas some central banks – notably the US Fed – are gearing up for aggressive tightening cycles, the comparatively... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to start its tightening cycle next week Having so far been a bastion of dovishness amongst G10 central banks, we think that the stage is set for the Riksbank to start to raise the repo rate next Thursday, and it will press on with further... 21st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Higher inflation and tighter policy in the Nordics Inflation data released this week across the Nordics confirmed that price pressures are building in the region. As a result, the Norges Bank looks set to press ahead with interest rate hikes, perhaps... 14th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in March is likely to give more ammunition to the hawks in the Riksbank, and lends support to our view that the Bank will start to raise the... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline and core inflation came in below expectations in March, underlying price pressures are likely to push both measures up a bit in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank is more... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Flodén leaves no room for ambiguity Riksbank policymaker Martin Flodén dialled up the hawkishness this week, arguing that monetary policy must respond to higher inflation. And with data due next week likely to show Swedish inflation in... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read