Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Governor Ingves to go out with a (75bp) bang With inflation still more than five times the Riksbank’s target, Stefan Ingves may be tempted to end his marathon stint as Governor with another 100bp rate hike. But we think the Bank is more likely... 17th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) Another bigger-than-expected increase in core inflation, to 7.9% in October, will keep the Riksbank focused on slowing demand when policymakers meet next week. We expect a further 75bp rate hike, to 2... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Housing risks rising; strong activity in Sweden Policymakers at the Riksbank and Norges Bank face a tricky balancing act. The latest housing indicators from Sweden and Norway have been very weak, implying that prices will fall. But October’s... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s stronger-than-expected inflation data pose an upside risk to our forecast for the policy rate to peak at 3%. But with house prices falling, the Norges Bank faces a tricky balancing act. 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Peak rates approaching in Norway, Switzerland The Norges Bank shifted to a slower pace of tightening this week, and the latest data on the housing market suggest that there are downside risks to our forecast for the policy rate to hit 3% and stay... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle nearly over Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to slow the pace of rate hikes is the beginning of the end for its tightening cycle. But we don’t expect a pivot towards interest rate cuts next year. 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) The decline in both core and headline inflation in October supports our view that Switzerland has passed peak inflation. We expect further falls in the coming months which will allow the SNB to raise... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slower growth, strong labour markets Data published this week showed that Sweden's economy performed better than expected in Q3, but the timelier surveys point to a contraction in Q4. Next week, the Norges Bank's rate decision will be a... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tightening cycles have further to run Prospects for economic activity have deteriorated further in recent months as headwinds to growth have become stronger. Inflation looks set to remain high for longer, eroding households’ real incomes... 25th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish labour data point to further rate hikes Data for Sweden show that the labour market remained tight in September. Together with the recent strong inflation numbers this suggests that there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riskbank’s... 21st October 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s housing market, Swiss price pressures Data released this week show that the Riksbank is in a tricky situation, with consumer price inflation accelerating but the housing market looking very weak. Other data suggest that core inflation in... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Sep.) The large increase in inflation in September, to 10.8%, confirms that the Riksbank will press on with its rapid monetary policy tightening. For now we have assumed that rates will peak at 2.5% in... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggles, Danish central bank intervenes A raft of economic data for Sweden, including August’s GDP indicator, published this week added to the evidence that its economy is slowing and heading for recession this winter. Meanwhile, Denmark’s... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss and Nordic economies heading south This week we got yet more data showing that economies in the region are slowing. Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator for September plummeted and suggested that growth has abruptly stalled, and... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly A trio of hawkish central banks In what has proven to be an action-packed week for major central banks, those in the Nordics and the SNB kept their end up and delivered historically large rate rises. And despite the surveys... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
