Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes and recessions loom large The near-term economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are set for mild recessions in late 2022 and early 2023. This is partly a function of external... 21st July 2022 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Super-sized rate hikes rising up the policy menu The case for frontloading tightening cycles in Norway and Sweden is getting more and more compelling, not least because prolonging the inevitable would probably just raise the risk of harder landings... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in June will only strengthen the resolve of policymakers to squeeze inflation out of the system and raises the chance that the Bank will make... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish housing slump reinforces weak retail outlook The slowdown in the Swedish housing market has the potential to delay the recovery in the retail sector this year, as it weighs on retail sales and makes conversions to residential even less viable... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jun.) The services-driven increase in Norway’s core inflation rate in June increases the chance that the Norges Bank will raise its policy rate by another 50bps at its August policy meeting. 11th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Soft period looms for Sweden after a strong Q2 The stronger-than-expected rise in Sweden’s GDP Indicator in May means that we will undoubtedly be revising our Q2 GDP forecast for the country higher when we publish updated forecasts in the coming... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jun.) Although Swiss inflation remains enviably low compared to many advanced economies, the further increase in the core rate will only strengthen the SNB’s resolve to squeeze price rises out of the system... 4th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank shifts up gears but rate “summit” is in sight While the Riksbank stepped up the pace of tightening this week, the fact that Swedish households are highly sensitive to rate hikes, and the likelihood that weakening activity will soon reduce the... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to front-load rate hikes and accelerate “QT” As expected, this morning’s 50bp interest rate hike by the Riksbank, to +0.75% saw it join the ranks of the “50bp club”. But while policymakers resisted the urge to join “Club Fed” with a 75bp hike... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Rising interest rates to hit values The rapid turnaround in the interest rate environment has led us to revise down our expectations for property performance in Scandinavia and Switzerland. Property valuations deteriorated sharply in Q1... 27th June 2022 · 17 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Don’t bet against a 50bp Norges Bank hike in August The Norges Bank intends to follow this week’s 50bp interest rate hike with a 25bp rate rise in August, but the combination of strong global inflation pressures, an incredibly tight labour market in... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to join the “50bp crowd” next week Having begun its tightening cycle in April, we expect the Riksbank to join the trend by raising its policy interest rate by 50bps, to 0.75%, next week. 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank joins the “50bp club” This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its key policy rate by 50bps, to 1.25%, was in line with our non-consensus forecast. Also, as we predicted, the Bank all but confirmed that it will... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Erik Thedéen a safe pair of hands to succeed Ingves The appointment of Erik Thedéen as the new Governor of the Riksbank will only strengthen the relationship between the Bank and the financial regulator, and could result in more macroprudential powers... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More on the SNB; Norges Bank to hike by 50bp Even after the strong gains in the franc against the euro and US dollar after yesterday’s SNB rate hike, the Swiss real effective exchange rate is still about 5% below its level in early 2020 when the... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to step up pace of tightening next week We expect the Norges Bank to step up the pace of tightening at its policy meeting next Thursday (23 rd June) with a 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, and to indicate that it will probably raise interest rates... 16th June 2022 · 5 mins read
