Europe Economics Weekly Christine Lagarde’s wishful thinking on AI This week’s inflation data and ECB decision were in line with expectations. In this Weekly we take a look at Christine Lagarde’s claim that there is a significant AI-related pick-up in investment in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French bond rally looks overdone The French government's survival after bypassing parliament to implement the 2026 budget has done nothing to improve the country's long-term debt dynamics. So we think that the recent narrowing of... 30th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (January 2026) While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater confidence... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB on the FX sidelines, but negative rates coming We do not think that the SNB has intervened in FX markets in recent days despite the Swiss franc’s large appreciation. Instead, we think policymakers are likely to combat any disinflationary pressure... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Greenland tensions aftermath, Germany finally recovering? We think that this week's flare-up in EU-US tensions over Greenland is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the euro-zone economy. Meanwhile, data out of Germany suggest its economy may be turning a... 23rd January 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update A quiet meeting next week for the Riksbank There is no doubt that the Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 1.75% next week and continue to signal it will not adjust its policy for many months. We think that policymakers will only start to... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (January 2026) Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and the Bank’s messaging repeated that policymakers are in no hurry to lower rates further. We are forecasting a cut in June, but... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Greenland tariffs: the political consequences would trump the economic It remains unclear whether President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless a deal is reached to acquire Greenland will ever materialise. But if it does, the economic... 18th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone households still cautious We learnt this week that the euro-zone’s household saving rate remained very high in Q3 last year. With households still reporting low levels of confidence, we think they will continue to be reluctant... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (January 2026) We expect euro-zone GDP to increase at a moderate pace this year and next. Germany’s fiscal stimulus is likely to be smaller, slower and less effective than many expect, while growth will be stronger... 12th January 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly On EU relations with the Western Hemisphere We suspect that European governments will prioritise their relationship with the US over concerns about Greenland’s sovereignty, not least because they are more focused on Nato and Ukraine. Meanwhile... 9th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) Swiss inflation edged up in December but remained close to zero and we think it will remain around that level this year. While the SNB left its policy rate at zero in December, we think policymakers... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2026 The recovery in European commercial property values is set to slow this year given the soft economic growth backdrop and elevated interest rates. Our forecast for euro-zone all-property total returns... 7th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update A primer on President Trump and Greenland In light of President Trump’s recent intervention in Venezuela and statements that the US should acquire Greenland, this Update answers some key questions about Greenland and the US. 6th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2025 The recovery in European property values in 2025 was broadly as we forecasted. However, the drivers differed slightly from our expectations, with a smaller-than-expected fall in prime property yields... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read
