Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB steals a march on the ECB After the excitement of yesterday’s ECB emergency meeting and 75bp hike by the US Fed, the SNB kept its end up by unexpectedly raising its policy rate by 50bps this morning – its first rate rise since... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in May lends support to our forecast that the Riksbank will step up the pace of tightening. A 50bp hike in the policy rate now looks... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Farewell, Cecilia Skingsley; rate hikes & house prices We expect house prices to fall in Sweden and Norway this year as rising interest rates push up borrowing costs. But the peak-to-trough declines are likely to be smaller than those in Canada, Australia... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected increase in Norway’s core inflation rate in May lends support to our forecast that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening later this month. A 50bp hike in the... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Looming ECB rate hikes give SNB plenty to ponder We forecast the SNB to largely shadow ECB rate hikes over the next 18 months or so, albeit allowing the interest rate differential with the euro-zone to widen from 25bps at present to 50bps by end... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Monarchical achievements & “killer apps” Real per capita incomes in the UK have risen by 1.9% on average each year since Elizabeth II came to the throne in 1952. But the monarchical bragging rights go to Harald V in Norway, under whom GDP... 1st June 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP in Q1 provides a solid base for year-on-year growth rates throughout 2022. But with surveys heading south, and signs of stagnation in the euro-zone in... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Jumbo rate hikes looming into sight The change which we made to our ECB forecast this week has prompted us bring forward some of the rate hikes in our profile for the Scandinavian central banks and even the SNB, all of which we think... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Value gains set to slow The recovery continued in the Scandinavian and Swiss economies and their property markets in Q1. It was a record first quarter for investment in Scandinavia. And annual capital value growth was robust... 24th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Dumbo does monetary policy in Stockholm The elephant-based metaphor used by Governor Ingves this week to describe how the ECB’s actions affect the Riksbank was particularly well judged given the increasing chance that Swedish and euro-zone... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred... 13th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NATO retaliation; Riksbank eyeing front-loading? Even if reports that Russia is close to cutting off the supply of natural gas to Finland prove accurate, Finland seems well placed to replace Russian flows with LNG imports from elsewhere. So, while... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in April was partly due to high energy and food prices but also because of broadening price pressures. We expect the core rate to remain above... 12th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in core inflation in April raises the chances that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening at its next rate decision, in June. Markets Drop-In (11 th... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Schlegel gets a pay rise; new split at the Riksbank The fact that the successor to Fritz Zurbrügg as Vice-Chair of the SNB’s Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, is an SNB stalwart means the looming changes at the top are unlikely to change the decision... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Higher rates to squeeze Copenhagen office values With economic concerns worsening in the euro-zone, we expect that the Danish economy will not be immune. And we think that the shifts in the interest rate outlook in particular will have the most... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
