Europe Commercial Property Update Could Norwegian property go from hero to zero in 2015? As oil prices have continued to fall, the prospects for economic growth and occupier demand in the Norwegian property markets have softened. However, with the krone now beginning to look cheap... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Precious metals prove their worth Commodity prices stabilised towards the end of January after sharp falls in oil and copper earlier in the month. The strength of the US dollar and concerns about global growth remain significant... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More budget cuts likely in Mexico Spending cuts announced by the Mexican government worth 0.7% of GDP are unlikely to be enough to compensate for the loss of oil revenues this year and further spending cuts are likely later this year... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Downsides of lower oil prices are overstated We think that the risks to the public finances and output in the oil and gas sector from lower oil prices are exaggerated. And while investment in the North Sea might suffer, stronger investment in... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Big number of small winners > small number of big losers Last week, mixed news on corporate earnings and an unexpected decline in underlying capital goods orders in December renewed fears that recent market moves are somehow a net negative for the US... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Are very low bond yields here to stay? We forecast US Treasury yields to rise only gradually amid the onset of tighter Fed policy, while the yields of governments bonds in many other developed economies should remain very low against the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard will lower prices hit oil producers’ budgets? The collapse in oil prices will, of course, have a big negative impact on the fiscal positions of the world’s major oil producers. But countries with large fiscal buffers, including the Gulf economies... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reasons to be optimistic about Korea’s economy in 2015 Korea stands to be one of Emerging Asia’s biggest beneficiaries from lower oil prices, and will also be boosted by a recovery in the housing market and by expansionary fiscal policy. We think most... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The strength of January’s GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence suggests that consumers’ spirits have been lifted by their stronger purchasing power, partly as a result of the collapse in the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rate cuts to be exception rather than rule Expectations that the fall in oil prices will trigger a wave of interest rate cuts across Asia are probably wide of the mark. Admittedly, Pakistan, India and Singapore have each loosened monetary... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data show a further surge in US crude oil stocks as traders continue to store oil to take advantage of high futures prices. 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Are lower crude oil prices here to stay? The slump in oil prices over the last six months has vindicated the bearish view we have held for several years. Our central forecast is that the price of Brent will recover to $60 per barrel by the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Government eases pressure on BoJ to expand stimulus The greater tolerance being shown by Japan’s government towards inflation remaining below target simply reflects the fact that the oil price collapse has made hitting the target all but impossible in... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in US oil stocks supports spot prices The surge in US stocks of oil in the last few weeks has been driven at least in part by attempts to arbitrage low spot prices with higher futures ones. This should support prices over the next few... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the recovery fizzle out in 2015? While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
