Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Fall in oil prices to wipe out Gulf’s current account surplus The recent fall in oil prices, if sustained, will effectively wipe out the Gulf’s current account surplus. This shouldn’t pose too many problems for these economies. Even if oil prices fall further... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What low oil prices mean for sub-Saharan Africa Dramatic falls in oil prices have already taken a heavy toll on Nigeria, where the central bank was forced to devalue the naira and raise interest rates to slow the currency’s decline. As we show in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will lower oil prices do the ECB’s job for it? The recent fall in oil prices will have some modest positive effects on the euro-zone economy. But it does not preclude the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will lower oil prices turbocharge the economic recovery? Whilst the recent fall in oil prices seems unlikely to transform the pace of the UK’s economic recovery, it should provide a timely prop at a time when other sources of support appear to be fading. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil leads the way lower The prices of most commodities fell in November, dragged down by the sharp fall in oil prices. However, supply concerns buoyed the prices of some agricultural commodities and industrial metals... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the ruble’s latest tumble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few days points to another large increase in interest rates when the central bank’s board meets next week. But the fact that the authorities have so far... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices pushes Venezuela even closer to default The writing is on the wall for Venezuela as falling oil prices exacerbate severe strains in the balance of payments. Both the government’s ability and willingness to service its foreign currency debt... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Market response to OPEC inaction shows cheaper oil here to stay It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today, so the fact that global oil prices still took another large tumble towards our long-held forecast of $70 per barrel... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf set to resist pressure to cut oil output Comments ahead of today’s OPEC meeting, playing down calls for a cut in the cartel’s output target, suggest that the Gulf States aren’t too alarmed by the recent slide in oil prices. Indeed, Saudi... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower oil prices will hit growth of fledgling LNG industry The impact of lower oil prices will be reflected in global oil-indexed gas prices in coming months. This will put pressure on the profitability of upcoming higher-cost LNG projects, most of which are... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran nuclear deal pushed back until June The extension of the talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme doesn’t come as a surprise. Nonetheless, lower oil prices should increase the pressure on Tehran to reach a deal... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies continue to lose ground Most of the region’s currencies have continued to depreciate against the US dollar so far this month, extending a period of weakness that began back in August. Looking ahead, while we think that the... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will lower oil prices end Norway’s long boom? Norway has been one of the strongest growing economies of the developed world over the last decade. But with households buckling under high debt burdens and lower oil prices set to exacerbate the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs point to subdued commodity demand Falls in the flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone do not bode well for commodity prices. Activity indicators were weak in both regions, suggesting downward pressure on the prices of industrial... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will lower oil prices end Norway’s long boom? Norway has been one of the strongest growing economies of the developed world over the last decade. But with households buckling under high debt burdens and lower oil prices set to exacerbate the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Keystone XL delayed again, but likely to be approved next year Despite rejection yesterday, the Keystone export limited (XL) pipeline is likely to be approved early next year when the Republicans take control of the Senate. Eventually this should add to the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
