Energy Update New lows for US oil price unlikely to be sustained The renewed decline in the price of the traditional US benchmark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), to a six-year low of $43 per barrel, overstates the weakness in global oil prices. Other... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production fall only temporary Another small fall in OPEC’s production still leaves a large supply glut in the market. It won’t be until demand picks up in the second half of this year that the market may rebalance. 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices wilt in face of surging dollar Most commodity prices fell further this week, undermined by the continued strength of the US currency and soft economic data from China. The prices of crude oils, especially the traditional US... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Strong pound masks emerging election concerns On the face of it, markets appear to be taking the prospect of an inconclusive outcome from May’s general election in their stride. Indeed, markets have moved to price in a slightly faster pace of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Energy prices fall back on high stocks and milder weather It has been a relatively quiet month in energy markets, at least compared to the last few. Oil prices have mostly stabilised although they have dipped a little recently. Meanwhile, milder winter... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s euro-zone industrial production data suggested that industry had a poor start to 2015, with little evidence of a boost from the weaker euro or lower oil prices. 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How do oil prices, diets and climate change affect food prices? Agricultural commodities are less sensitive to the economic cycle than other commodities such as oil and copper, mainly because, in the short term, income and price elasticities for essential... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The latest data from the EIA suggest that the surge in gasoline stocks may have run its course as demand picks up, but stocks of crude oil are likely to continue to rise. 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update How do lower rig counts affect oil production? We expect US oil production to peak in the middle of this year as the backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells is used up. This should help support oil prices, especially in the US, in the second half... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Payrolls data are not all bad news Most commodity prices fell this week even before the strong US payrolls data raised expectations of early Fed tightening and further dollar strength. While recognising that both developments have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why haven’t households spent their gasoline windfall? With the overall economy in good shape, it is only a matter of time before households start to spend more of the cash freed up by the plunge in gasoline prices. Indeed, in recent years households have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next CBK Governor to face less pressure to start tightening cycle It looks more likely than not that Dr. Haron Sirima will replace Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, and his appointment is likely be welcomed by the markets as a safe pair... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update China takes another step away from coal power We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as China continues to turn its back on coal. However, the downside should be limited by growing demand... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf public investment projects to take the hit from low oil prices The Gulf countries should be able to stomach low prices for the next few years at least, but further down the line some form of adjustment is likely to be needed and we think that fiscal policy will... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks increase by the largest amount in over a decade, but fears about storage capacity constraints seem overdone. 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What impact would an Iran-US nuclear deal have on oil prices? A deal between Iran and the West which allows for the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports is looking more likely. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. The most likely scenario in... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
