Commodities Weekly Oil prices finding a floor as precious metals rebound The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Plunge in oil prices to transform global trade balances The collapse in oil prices is likely to have a much larger impact on world trade than the depreciation of the euro – even if yesterday’s decision by the ECB to launch “full-blown QE” leads to further... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery set to strengthen in 2015 The consumer recovery looks set for another robust year of growth in 2015. Indeed, there are a number of factors which could mean that spending growth accelerates. For a start, the halving in the oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited demand boost from cheaper oil The plunge in crude oil prices since last summer will reduce the cost of Japan’s energy imports by around 2.5% of GDP in the near term. However, much of the windfall will be saved and the boost to... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Lower oil prices to delay rate hikes, but not in Nigeria The dramatic fall in oil prices pushed inflation down in much of Sub-Saharan Africa at the end of last year, and it is likely to slow further this year. This would lead policymakers in some of the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide further evidence that traders are stockpiling US crude to take advantage of the difference between low spot prices and higher future ones. 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling commodity prices weigh on markets Latin America’s financial markets have suffered so far this year following fresh declines in the prices of a number of the region’s commodity exports – notably copper and oil. Most equities and... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Fall in US oil rigs should lead to a fall in output, just not yet The fall in the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US is the latest sign that firms are beginning to respond to the collapse in oil prices by cutting back on investment. However, we expect US oil... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy won’t collapse but growth will soften in 2015-16 Concerns that the plunge in oil prices will push the Saudi economy into a deep recession this year look overdone. We expect growth to slow this year and next, but a collapse in output looks unlikely. 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets buoyed by RBI’s early rate cut Having already made a good start to 2015, India’s financial markets have rallied further following the RBI’s decision to cut interest rates at an unscheduled meeting last week. Bond yields have... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How hard will the oil price slump hit mining investment? Following the collapse in crude oil prices, a sizable drop in mining investment is inevitable. Nevertheless, the shale oil boom, which has been going for less than a decade, is so new that it’s hard... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deflation should be briefer in the UK than overseas With E.On’s cut in gas prices probably kicking off a more widespread round of utility price cuts and oil prices falling even further last week, a brief dip into outright deflation now seems more... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will falling oil prices push Emerging Asia into deflation? Sharp falls in oil prices in recent months will put downward pressure on inflation across Emerging Asia, with a number of countries likely to see inflation turn negative in early 2015. On the whole... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower oil prices unlikely to drive French retail recovery in 2015 With the outlook for French consumer spending still weak and flows of wealthy tourists unlikely to grow in the short-term, retail rents in Paris and Lyon are unlikely to experience particularly strong... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Decline in oil prices not a disaster for Nigeria’s public finances The dramatic fall in oil prices since last summer will take a significant chunk out of the Nigerian government’s tax receipts, but we do not think it will be disastrous. Although measures to boost non... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
