Latin America Economics Update Brazil edging towards an energy crisis An intensifying drought in Brazil has made it increasingly likely that the authorities will implement some form of power rationing over the coming months. Much remains uncertain, but we think that... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Prospects of supply cuts boost oil and coal prices The main story since the beginning of the year has been the recovery in the price of oil, which is now 20% above its recent lows, reflecting the first signs of supply cuts in response to the previous... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for weaker growth, North Africa to outperform The fall in oil prices has led to a sharp reversal of fortunes in the Middle East and North Africa. Fears of steep falls in output in the Gulf are overdone, but growth will weaken in the coming years... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Split in EM export performance is widening The value of EM exports continued to fall in annual terms in December, with oil producers faring especially poorly. The early signs are that Asia's manufacturing-oriented economies will report weak... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another week of record stock levels and production will disappoint those hoping that last week’s surge in prices was the start of a new bull market. However, the rate of growth of stocks and output is... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Oil glut likely to continue in the first half of 2015 Oversupply in the oil market will probably continue until demand picks up and US oil production growth begins to ease off in the summer. This will limit the upside for prices in the coming months. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) December’s rise in South African manufacturing production showed that the sector ended the year on a high. There are also signs that manufacturers started this year fairly strongly. Although growth is... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook 2015 to be a year of recovering prices 2014 was the fourth successive year of poor performance by commodities, especially relative to bonds and equities, but we believe 2015 will be the year when many finally turn the corner. The recent... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is deflation here to stay this time? The latest bout of deflation in the euro-zone looks set to last rather longer than the brief period of falling prices seen back in 2009. With vast amounts of slack in the economy and inflation... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A sustained rally in oil prices? Oil prices have rebounded by over 20% in the last week during a period of highly volatile trading. The rally was sparked by growing evidence of declining US rig counts and multiple announcements of... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Positive sentiment towards agriculturals fades Abundant supplies of many agricultural commodities and concerns about weak demand are likely to be behind the general deterioration in sentiment towards agriculturals in recent weeks. Indeed, there... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to determine interest rate moves in Russia The fact that the ruble has strengthened since Russia’s surprise cut in interest rates last Friday is more a reflection of the subsequent rebound in global oil prices than it is an endorsement by... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to $46.6bn in December, from $39.8bn, may have wrong-footed the markets (the consensus forecast was $38.0bn). But it was broadly in line with the assumptions that the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price rebound does not eliminate chance of deflation The recent rebound in the oil price does not mean that the UK will necessarily avoid a spell of deflation, although it does increase the chance that the spell is brief and shallow. 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The amount of oil being put into storage in the US shows little sign of levelling off as weak consumption, high output and arbitrage activity all add to demand for storage. 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
