Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the crisis in Russia mean for CEE? The crisis in Russia, coming alongside renewed weakness in the euro-zone, adds to the headwinds facing Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Thankfully, the threat of potentially explosive financial... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update PMIs show global economy ending 2014 on a weaker note Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the pace of global growth has cooled a little further in recent weeks. Nonetheless, the slowdown since the summer has been milder than the tone of media... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) Colombia maintained a relatively strong pace of growth in the third quarter, seemingly driven by construction and agriculture. However, given the recent oil price falls, we expect the economy to lose... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will frontier market equities continue to underperform? The sharp drop in oil prices has played a major role in the recent poor performance of the MSCI Frontier Markets (FM) Index, in which a small number of oil exporting countries have large weightings... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What if oil prices fall to $40? The slump in oil prices to $60 per barrel should be a clear net gain for the world economy. Indeed, the potential boost to global demand is one important reason to expect prices to level out soon... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities: big falls now happened, but sharp rebound unlikely In spite of small rises today, equity markets in the Gulf have tumbled over the past month and all of the gains made earlier this year have now been wiped out. While we suspect that the big falls have... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek crisis and falling oil price strengthen case for QE We disagree with speculation that the resurgence of the Greek crisis and the fall in the oil price have reduced the chance of quantitative easing. Indeed, we think that both factors have increased the... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How low must oil prices fall to choke off shale supply? Although $60 per barrel is a fair long-run estimate, there is no single “magic number” for the oil price below which enough North American production becomes unprofitable for supply cuts to start to... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices will hold back economy The slump in the crude oil prices to around US$60 per barrel is a serious threat to domestic business investment and future oil production. With the long-run breakeven cost of most oil sands projects... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Are EM corporate bonds really that vulnerable? Since the end of October, emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have performed much worse than comparably-rated US corporate bonds. This has been the result of increasing credit spreads... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf well placed to weather low oil prices The slump in oil prices has caused concerns to emerge about the exposure of financial institutions to energy companies, but for banks in the Gulf this risk seems small. They are more vulnerable to a... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How South Africa stands to gain from the slump in oil prices The sharp slide in oil prices will help to lower inflation in South Africa and is likely to make a significant dent in the country’s current account deficit. But while this may ease concerns about the... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
