US Economics Weekly Big number of small winners > small number of big losers Last week, mixed news on corporate earnings and an unexpected decline in underlying capital goods orders in December renewed fears that recent market moves are somehow a net negative for the US... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Are very low bond yields here to stay? We forecast US Treasury yields to rise only gradually amid the onset of tighter Fed policy, while the yields of governments bonds in many other developed economies should remain very low against the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard will lower prices hit oil producers’ budgets? The collapse in oil prices will, of course, have a big negative impact on the fiscal positions of the world’s major oil producers. But countries with large fiscal buffers, including the Gulf economies... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reasons to be optimistic about Korea’s economy in 2015 Korea stands to be one of Emerging Asia’s biggest beneficiaries from lower oil prices, and will also be boosted by a recovery in the housing market and by expansionary fiscal policy. We think most... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The strength of January’s GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence suggests that consumers’ spirits have been lifted by their stronger purchasing power, partly as a result of the collapse in the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rate cuts to be exception rather than rule Expectations that the fall in oil prices will trigger a wave of interest rate cuts across Asia are probably wide of the mark. Admittedly, Pakistan, India and Singapore have each loosened monetary... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data show a further surge in US crude oil stocks as traders continue to store oil to take advantage of high futures prices. 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Are lower crude oil prices here to stay? The slump in oil prices over the last six months has vindicated the bearish view we have held for several years. Our central forecast is that the price of Brent will recover to $60 per barrel by the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Government eases pressure on BoJ to expand stimulus The greater tolerance being shown by Japan’s government towards inflation remaining below target simply reflects the fact that the oil price collapse has made hitting the target all but impossible in... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in US oil stocks supports spot prices The surge in US stocks of oil in the last few weeks has been driven at least in part by attempts to arbitrage low spot prices with higher futures ones. This should support prices over the next few... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the recovery fizzle out in 2015? While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices finding a floor as precious metals rebound The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Plunge in oil prices to transform global trade balances The collapse in oil prices is likely to have a much larger impact on world trade than the depreciation of the euro – even if yesterday’s decision by the ECB to launch “full-blown QE” leads to further... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery set to strengthen in 2015 The consumer recovery looks set for another robust year of growth in 2015. Indeed, there are a number of factors which could mean that spending growth accelerates. For a start, the halving in the oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
