Emerging Europe Economics Update More bad news for the Russian economy June’s raft of activity data confirmed that strong growth in the first quarter of the year is likely to be the high watermark for the Russian economy in 2012. We think growth slowed to around 4.0% in... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan’s revitalisation strategy The government unveiled its draft of a revitalisation plan for Japan last Wednesday. The strategy sets out a broad range of policies to lift economic growth, end deflation and create over four million... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Jubilee boost masks weaker picture The effects of early June’s Jubilee celebrations are now starting to come through in the economic data. Last week’s releases provided evidence of the positive effects of the extended holiday, but... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: economy could make or break the new president’s tenure The election of Dr. Mohamed Mursi as Egypt’s first democratically-elected president last month represented a significant step in the country’s transition. But as we expected, tensions between the new... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small business confidence waning The fairly sharp decline in the NFIB's latest small business optimism index suggests that it isn't just larger export-orientated firms that have seen a drop off in demand over the past few months. 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peña Nieto wins but no PRI majority If Mexico’s President-elect, Enrique Peña Nieto, is to achieve 6% GDP growth he will have to press ahead with reforms. However, with the PRI falling short of a majority in Congress, he will need to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (2012Q2) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while significantly fewer businesses expect future sales growth to pick-up over the next 12 months, they remain steadfast in their plans to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s political turmoil casts doubts on IMF/EU deal The Romanian parliament’s vote to impeach the President leaves the country clouded by uncertainty and casts doubts on the future of the country’s IMF/EU programme. This is likely to keep the leu and... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on the Egyptian pound mount Provisional data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing no improvement in foreign currency reserves in June – as had been hoped – will keep pressure on the pound. With political conditions still... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will firms and households fare? With the drag from the euro-zone crisis on the UK economy set to grow, the chances of a decent recovery rest heavily on a strong revival in domestic spending. But neither firms nor households appear... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Corporate cash piles could boost economic growth Canadian businesses are flush with cash. Even if just a small fraction of the cash held by the non-financial sector were used to boost dividends, we estimate it would significantly increase personal... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political chaos to hold back growth in Kuwait Kuwait’s political crisis is showing no signs of abating as former Prime Minister Sheikh Jabir bin Mubarak Al-Sabah has been reappointed only four days after he resigned. For now, tensions between the... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sluggish corporate earnings to weigh on the US stock market The Q2 earnings season kicks off in the US next week. The story that is likely to emerge is one of slower profit growth. And looking further ahead, the news is likely to get worse. This is a key... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Greece finance itself after a euro-zone exit? We have long argued that it may be in the best interests of Greece to leave the euro-zone. And while some commentators have suggested that Greece would benefit from waiting until it can fully cover... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Investors too complacent on political risks Investor concerns over the risk of a disorderly devaluation of the pound are beginning to fade on the back of fresh hopes that the new Egyptian president will pursue an agreement with the IMF. However... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan less encouraging than headlines suggest The marginal improvement in the Tankan survey of business conditions in the quarter just ended points to only a fragile recovery at best. Large manufacturers may be less negative, but large... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
