Japan Economics Update Business conditions tougher than expected but optimism remains The government’s Business Outlook Survey indicates conditions deteriorated slightly in Q2, confounding Q1’s forecasts of a strong recovery. Despite the tougher-than-expected environment, firms remain... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peso driven by risk appetite not politics The latest opinion poll in Mexico suggests that the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made a late charge ahead of July’s presidential election. That has coincided with a sharp sell-off of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Problems mount for the next Greek Government Markets have reacted positively to some signs of growing support for the pro-bail-out parties amongst Greek voters. But the formation of a government headed by New Democracy is unlikely to end deposit... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: political uncertainty set to push economy to the brink The results of the 1st round of presidential elections in Egypt could prolong the political uncertainty that has gripped the country since the revolution, which will increase the near-term risk of a... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt’s presidential elections Today marks the first day in Egypt’s presidential elections with the opinion polls and expatriate votes showing contradictory results. Regardless of who wins, two outstanding issues remain from an... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pre-election spending deepens structural problems in Venezuela The recent sale of debt by the Venezuelan authorities will help to bolster economic growth ahead of October’s presidential election. But the fact that the debt issuance has effectively been monetised... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a country exiting the euro also have to leave the EU? Despite much confusion on this point, there does not appear to be any insurmountable legal barrier to a country leaving the euro and remaining within the European Union (EU), even without the prior... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece: After the election A victory for Greece’s anti-bail-out parties in the June election would not necessarily mark the end of the bail-out deal. But any agreement which is reached between the Government and the troika is... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Apr.) & Construction (Mar.) April’s producer price figures indicated that firms are passing on a bigger than expected proportion of past increases in their costs to customers. But with the latest construction figures suggesting... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Putin 2.0 for real? In his first speech since returning to the Russian presidency, Vladimir Putin underlined the need to shift towards a more liberal economic policy. We have been here before, of course, and we remain... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election deadlock raises euro exit risk The failure of the Greek election to produce a new government provides some support to our view that Greece could leave the euro-zone as soon as the end of this year. 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the austerity backlash spreading to the UK? A bad result for the Government in Thursday’s local elections would suggest that the austerity backlash seen in the euro-zone has spread to the UK. But the coalition still seems set to stick to its... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Hollande really transform France’s outlook? François Hollande’s promises of a pro-growth strategy and a stronger leadership role in Europe have raised hopes about France’s economic outlook. But his bold words have so far been backed by few firm... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election won’t buy much time Greece’s general election should result in the formation of a new Government that is, on paper at least, committed to the terms of the recently agreed second bail-out deal. But with the economy still... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Constitution key for Egypt’s new president Today marks the beginning of campaigning for Egypt’s presidential elections. While most commentators are focusing on the likely winner, we think that the definition of the exact powers of Egypt’s next... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
