Europe Economics Weekly Sensible changes, but no big cure Against a background of low expectations, the changes agreed at the EU Summit to tackle several issues which threatened to inhibit the effectiveness of short-term support measures came as a pleasant... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.) With the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence unchanged in June, the anticipated boost to consumer spirits from the Jubilee celebrations does not seem to have materialised. 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Oil-poor countries could still outperform in the long term The economic prospects for some of the resource-poor Arab countries are brighter than their current conditions suggest. Although political transitions are proving difficult, we still think that they... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peña Nieto still in the driving seat Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI remains on course to register a comfortable victory in Sunday’s Mexican presidential election. But with the PRI now looking unlikely to win a majority in Congress there... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would leaving the EU damage the UK economy? A referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU seems to be becoming a more realistic prospect. We think that concerns about the economic disruption if the UK were to leave are overdone. In fact, the... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What’s gone wrong in India? India’s economic troubles are mostly self-inflicted and result from policy paralysis and opposition to reforms. That is unlikely to change until the 2014 general elections at the earliest 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian markets rally, but political conditions are still fragile Egypt made a significant step in its transition yesterday following the announcement that the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Mursi has won the presidential election run-off. Even so, we remain cautious... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Basic divisions will hinder Summit progress Together, the radical plans that are up for discussion at this week’s Summit could be the key to the euro-zone’s survival. But with Germany opposed to providing more funds without central budget... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) June’s German Ifo survey reinforced the message already given by the ZEW and PMI surveys earlier this week that the euro-zone’s main growth engine has stalled. 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers have space to support growth The authorities in most Latin American countries have space to loosen policy in the event of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. Indeed, we expect to see policy easing in most economies over... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal challenges to remain beyond current squeeze The UK’s current deficit reduction plan offers to some the happy prospect of a smaller public sector in the future. But the fiscal consequences of the UK’s ageing population may frustrate such... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 summit meets low expectations The best that can be said about the Los Cabos summit is that it appears to have been less fractious and better organised than November’s meeting in Cannes. But it seems to have done precious little to... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Outlook darkens for Egypt as political conditions deteriorate The Egyptian military is tightening its grip over political life in the country, casting doubts over the authority of the new president. Investors should therefore be concerned that recent... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election results do not eliminate exit risks New Democracy’s narrow victory in Sunday’s general election will ease concerns of an imminent and disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone. But it remains unlikely that euro-zone policymakers will... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) The stalling in underlying retail sales growth in May suggests that the recent easing in jobs growth has started to curtail spending. We doubt, however, that the economic recovery has come to a... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Under the weather? The recent swings in weather conditions and retail sales have brought to the fore the issue of the impact of the weather on consumer spending. There are occasions when the weather can have an impact... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
