Japan Economics Update Consumption tax hike leaves credibility at risk Following a strong Q3 Tankan survey, the Japanese government today confirmed that it will go ahead with the first consumption tax hike next April. However, the decision to offset some of the fiscal... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Tunisia’s government not a major economic setback News that Tunisia’s government has agreed to step down at some point over the next few weeks provides a further reason to think that growth there will remain sluggish and that fiscal reforms may slip... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Renewed political uncertainty adds to Italy's problems Silvio Berlusconi’s decision to withdraw his support for the coalition Government may not trigger elections. But the fragile political situation highlights the huge challenges that Italy faces just to... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Retail Sales (Aug.) & Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The drop in industrial production in August is unlikely to last long. Companies predict a very strong rebound in the following months, and the manufacturing PMI climbed to a new high in September... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep 13.) The further strengthening of the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in September provides reassurance that August’s drop in the official measure of retail sales was just a blip. For now, rising consumer... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) The ongoing improvement in small business confidence suggests that firms are shrugging off the looming consumption tax hike. With spare capacity gradually diminishing, their pricing power seems to be... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel wins strong mandate to stick to her guns While Angela Merkel did not win enough votes to govern alone in yesterday’s election, her strong support was a clear vindication of her domestic and international policy stance so far. She is likely... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bavarian state election points to national grand coalition While the CSU, sister party to Angela Merkel’s CDU, won a clear victory in Bavaria yesterday, the poor showing for the FDP bodes ill for the current coalition at a national level. The chance of Mrs... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) Even though machinery orders failed to reverse the previous month's dip in July, they still point to a further rebound in business investment in the third quarter. As capacity utilisation rises... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a left-wing coalition mean for Germany? The possible coalition of Germany’s SPD, Green and Left parties after next week’s election would probably mean slightly higher taxes and spending than under the more likely alternatives of a grand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence & Economy Watchers’ Survey (Aug.) The ongoing falls in consumer confidence and the Economy Watchers’ Survey (EWS) indicate that confidence in "Abenomics" has faded. While other surveys remain at strong levels, the EWS has a better... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Vodafone payout won’t top up the economy With Vodafone’s sale of its stake in the US telecoms company Verizon expected to deliver almost £24bn to UK investors, the potential impact has been compared to that of the Bank of England’s... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there any point in the G20? Investors have long ago learnt to expect little of substance to emerge from the formal meetings of G20 leaders and finance ministers. The group is too large and disparate to function as an effective... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big are the global risks from Syria? The recent events in Syria are, above all, a human tragedy, but it falls on us to address the wider market and economic implications too. A further rise in oil prices would threaten to turn a... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
