US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode ahead of election After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why China & Brazil must become more alike Rapid development in Brazil and China has been driven by radically different growth models: whereas Brazil has relied on high levels of consumption, China has depended on high rates of investment. But... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Renewed income squeeze looms Real consumer spending looks on course to have grown in the third quarter. And following some upward revisions to past spending, it could rise a touch in 2012 as a whole, compared to our previous... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update A closer look at the presidential candidates’ housing plans The election campaign has been frustratingly light on detail with regards to housing policy. Piecing together what we have, however, it looks like anyone expecting either candidates’ housing plan to... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s rise in the official measure of retail sales volumes suggested that consumers have loosened their purse strings a little. However, the rise partly reflected temporary sources of support... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economy developing split personality The US economy appears to be developing a split personality. Households, seemingly oblivious to the scheduled jump in marginal tax rates that will reduce their after-tax income next year, are... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Business rate rises will become less painful Today’s consumer prices figures brought the news that RPI inflation in September – the rate which will be used to uprate business rates next April – was 2.6%. While this will be another chunky rise in... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (2012Q3) Businesses are clearly more cautious about the outlook for sales and we think they are still too optimistic, especially now that the domestic economy looks vulnerable to a housing correction... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) & Empire State Index (Oct.) The strong rise in retail sales in September was probably flattered by a gain in food prices (triggered by the recent drought) and the release of Apple’s iPhone 5. Nonetheless, it now seems likely... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Spain still dragging its heels? Spain’s delay in applying for a bail-out and hence triggering the ECB’s new bond buying plan probably reflects both political and financial considerations. But it can’t hold out for much longer. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will the reform boost for Indian markets last? The recent burst of reforms has buoyed India’s equity and currency markets, and some further measures are possible in the coming weeks. However, the country’s fundamental outlook has not improved... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan: a new government, but no chance of economic reforms On the face of it, the appointment of a widely respected economist as Jordan’s new Prime Minister should help to kick-start much-needed economic and fiscal reforms in the country. But in practice we... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Don't bank on stock market gains once earnings start to fall The US Q2 earnings season kicks off today. The news is likely to be downbeat, with the annual growth rate of profits reportedly expected to be negative for the first time since 2009. In recent months... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers' Survey (Sep. 12) The continued sharp fall in confidence revealed in the latest Economy Watchers’ Survey adds to the evidence that the economy contracted in the third quarter. The outlook component is equally weak... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand still has further to fall The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chávez re-election to deepen Venezuela’s economic problems Hugo Chávez’s re-election as President of Venezuela is likely to result in a sharp sell-off in the bond market over the coming days and a 40-50% devaluation of the bolivar before year-end. More... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
