Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales (Nov.) Despite the small rise in economic sentiment in December, the latest batch of eurozone data still presented a decidedly downbeat picture of the state of the currency union’s economy at the end of last... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Scottish independence mean for the remaining UK? We think that Scotland’s exit from the Union would be unlikely to benefit the rest of the UK and could even represent a net economic cost. The UK would probably retain some of the disadvantages of... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) December’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor was in line with other evidence suggesting that retailers experienced a relatively flat festive season. With consumers’ real incomes still falling, the high street... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of developments in Venezuela The recent rally in Venezuelan government bonds, on the back of speculation that the deteriorating health of President Hugo Chávez will lead to a shift towards more market friendly policies, stands in... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Further weakness ahead for Kenyan shilling The Kenyan shilling slipped to a seven-month low against the US$ this morning and we think that growing domestic political risk in the run-up to elections in March, coupled with a large current... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Monti’s declaration will not end political uncertainty Mario Monti’s widely expected decision to head a “centrist alliance” probably increases the chances of Italy continuing its reform process, but the political situation remains uncertain. What’s more... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2013 In this final Weekly of the year we take a look ahead to some of main events and themes that will shape Japan’s economy in 2013. Key among these are the incoming LDP government’s first budget and the... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Retailers losing their nerve After a sluggish start to high street spending over the festive period, retailers appear to be losing their nerve and engaging in more widespread price discounting. And prospects for next year are not... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The unchanged level of retail sales volumes in November suggested that consumers are keeping their purse strings fairly tightly fastened in the run-up to Christmas. 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small rise in the German Ifo business survey is moderately encouraging news. But the index still points to economic stagnation in the near term. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update 2012: Day of reckoning postponed by the ECB Our fears that 2012 could be the “crunch year” for the euro-zone were not borne out – barring catastrophe in the next week or so! However, the fact that the economic news has been largely as we... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small firms and high-income households more downbeat The recent falls in sentiment of small businesses and high-earning consumers highlight that the fiscal cliff stand-off is weighing on activity. But the resulting hit to the economy may not be too... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What the LDP win means for Japan's economy As had been widely expected, Sunday’s election has returned the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan to power after a three-year absence. We can expect a two-pronged assault on deflation with significant... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Priorities for the new government At the time of writing, the outcome of the 16th December Lower House election is not yet clear. However, the dire Q4 Tankan survey, released on Friday, underlined the scale of the challenges facing... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Korea's election mean for its economy? A presidential election will take place in Korea on Wednesday. Despite the political differences between the two frontrunners, their economic policies have much in common. As such, we think the... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from the ANC Elective Conference News that South Africa’s deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe will challenge incumbent president Jacob Zuma for the leadership of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has added an extra layer of... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
