UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that the momentum enjoyed by retailers in the first month of the year is fading. Pressures on household budgets, not least the recent jump in petrol... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political deadlock could push Italy towards a bail-out The inconclusive outcome of the Italian election looks set to prompt a renewed bout of market pressure which may eventually force Italy to request a support package from the euro-zone. 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) & GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second release of German Q4 GDP data confirmed that GDP fell sharply as exports weakened. But the rise in the Ifo in February supports other recent evidence that the economy has since recovered... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore will need to settle for slower growth Singapore’s new official population forecasts have created a stir among an electorate worried about overcrowding and heavy immigration. But from an economic point of view, the biggest takeaway is that... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy: After the election Even if the Italian general election results in the formation of a stable pro-reform Government, Italy’s huge underlying economic problems suggest that it may only be a matter of time before concerns... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the Government’s fiscal plans crumbling? Halfway through the parliament, the coalition’s fiscal plans are showing sizeable cracks. But any changes to the plans are likely to be modest, maintaining the need for strong monetary support. 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The "two-speed" continent The scope for rapid “catch-up” growth, allied with improving levels of governance, point to a relatively upbeat outlook for most of sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade or so. By contrast, a lack... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay to fall for longer Recent developments have darkened the outlook for inflation and therefore imply that the squeeze on real pay is likely to persist to the very end of 2013. The recent rise in oil prices suggests that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador gambles on a third Correa term Rafael Correa’s emphatic victory in yesterday’s Ecuadorian Presidential Election looks to have breathed new life into a Latin American left which has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s surprise fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes has brought the recent run of better economic news to an abrupt end. While most of this weakness appears to have reflected the... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Sequestration a secondary issue to budget talks The probability is rising that Congress won't act to prevent the sequestration spending cuts taking effect at the start of next month. On paper, that would reduce spending by $110bn per year... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) It is mildly encouraging that consumption in January did not capitulate completely after the recent tax hikes. And while higher taxes and the latest leap in gasoline prices could yet hit sales harder... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Talk of currency wars to dominate G20 meeting Next week’s G20 gathering in Moscow will be overshadowed by talk of currency wars. But in our view, competitive exchange rate devaluations do not pose a significant threat to the global recovery. 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A primer on the Kenyan elections Kenya is preparing to hold elections next month, and with little to differentiate the economic policies of the two leading presidential candidates, voting is likely to be based in large part on ethnic... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Another tough year to get through Consumers will have to endure a further tough year. We no longer expect consumer spending to rise at all in real terms in 2013. But a recovery should start next year. 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMI Survey (Jan.) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales confirmed that the consumer sector remains under strain and supported other evidence that GDP fell sharply in Q4. But January’s final PMI survey added to... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
