UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) April’s slight fall in the level of consumer confidence provides further evidence that the consumer sector won’t see a meaningful recovery this year. With employment falling and real pay contracting... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy: New government, same challenges The formation of a grand coalition government in Italy is clearly a step forward, but we doubt that this marks a period of lasting political stability. In addition, despite calls from Prime Minister... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Apr.) April’s EC consumer and business survey supports other evidence that the euro-zone economy could contract again in Q2, marking the region’s longest ever recession. 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) The fall in April’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provides further reason to think that the pick-up in the consumer sector earlier this year was just temporary. With employment now falling and the... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s fall in the German Ifo business climate indicator will add to concerns that the recovery there is starting to falter. 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February's retail sales volumes, which were unchanged from the month before, suggest that first-quarter household consumption grew somewhat more slowly than in the previous quarter. This supports our... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s problems are far from over The re-election of President Napolitano suggests that Italy could soon have a new government in place. But an end to the political deadlock will not resolve Italy’s deep economic problems. 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Labour market weakness set to undermine spending The labour market’s recent deterioration threatens to nip the nascent recovery in consumer spending in the bud. Employment has begun to fall again and the forward-looking surveys suggest no imminent... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes was unsurprising given that month’s unusually severe weather. This still left sales up in the first quarter of 2013 as a whole. Nonetheless... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico reform programme takes shape The Mexican economy has slowed since the start of the year, taking some of the shine off of one of Latin America’s more positive growth stories. Nonetheless, we expect the economy to rebound later... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro's victory could herald period of instability in Venezuela Despite hopes for a new pragmatism, there is little evidence to suggest that Nicolas Maduro’s victory in yesterday’s Venezuelan presidential election will herald the dawn of an era of improved... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Mar.) The surprise fall in retail sales in March adds to other evidence that the US economy is experiencing another spring slowdown. But we doubt that the easing in economic growth in the coming quarters... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama's budget will kick-start new round of negotiations President Obama's budget proposals for fiscal year 2014 will now kick-start a renewed round of negotiations in Congress that, at best, could result in a much-coveted grand bargain or, at worst if the... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Online sales growth offers some retail comfort In the subdued retail environment of recent years, one bright spot has been rapid growth in online sales. Even in the difficult conditions in 2012, internet purchases grew by 15%. With 90% of sales... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) Against the recent awful weather, March’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor delivered a reasonably positive result. While the timing of Easter will have provided a boost to March’s figure, sales in Q1 as a... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business intentions indicate sluggish growth ahead The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that, while slightly more businesses expect future sales to pick-up over the next 12 months, investment intentions have been scaled back and hiring... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
