Europe Economics Update Italian deadlock set to continue The opening of Parliament on Friday will do little to lift the political uncertainty in Italy. Accordingly, a prolonged period of policy deadlock looks likely to fuel concerns over the outlook for... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What’s left in the ECB toolbox for SMEs? Reviving lending to small and medium-sized enterprises is crucial for the euro-zone’s prospects given the importance of these firms to the region, particularly in the periphery. Indeed, ECB President... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Business and consumer surveys up but details not so good The improvements in the headline indices from the government’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey and the latest monthly report on consumer confidence provide further evidence that Japan’s economy is... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: political unrest and weak euro-zone dim outlook Continued political turmoil and the ongoing recession in the euro-zone will weigh on growth in Tunisia this year. Over the longer-term, however, if the political situation calms down and structural... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What impact will sterling's drop have on retailers' profits? Sterling’s fall has clouded the outlook for retailers’ profits by pushing up import prices. However, their profitability should still improve over the next year or two thanks to the fading of other... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Kenyatta's victory On the face of it, an earlier-than-expected victory for Uhuru Kenyatta in Kenya’s presidential election has reduced the risk of public unrest and political uncertainty that had previously threatened... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets holding their nerve as Kenya delays election results Kenya’s parliamentary and presidential elections have so far passed relatively peacefully, helping to keep markets calm amid news that the results have been delayed due to technical problems. But the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Death of Chavez increases uncertainty in Venezuela The death of the Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, comes at a time when there are already mounting concerns about the outlook for the economy. His preferred successor, Nicolas Maduro, will probably... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Italy? More than a week after the general election, the political situation in Italy remains as uncertain as ever. With potentially months of political and economic deadlock ahead, we continue to expect... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Five issues to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, starts on Tuesday. Expectations, as usual, are low. This year though, with a new leadership keen to project an energetic image... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better business optimism to prop up GDP The recent improvement in small and medium-sized business optimism concurs with our forecast that economic growth rebounded at the start of 2013. However, the underlying details of the survey suggest... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses shrugging off fiscal uncertainty The sequestration spending cuts will probably only remain in place for a couple of months until Congress reaches a wider budget agreement, so the overall impact on the economy should be modest. More... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the crisis back? Having swum against the tide of increased optimism towards the euro-zone for some months, we are wary of the temptation to leap on last week’s events in Italy as a vindication of our position. After... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty to push Italy deeper into recession The Italian economy’s dire end to 2012, combined with the growing likelihood of a long period of political deadlock, supports our long-held view that the consensus outlook for Italy is too optimistic... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External fragilities remain high in the non-Gulf economies Political unrest is increasing balance of payments strains across the region’s resource-poor economies. Egypt has grabbed the headlines, but there are also external financing concerns in Jordan and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke weighs the costs and benefits of more QE Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual congressional testimony confirmed that the FOMC is paying a lot more attention to the potential costs of continuing with its quantitative easing this year... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
