Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the thorny issue of devaluation Egypt’s talks with the IMF over a financing package are set to get underway this month. There are a number of major stumbling blocks, the most contentious of which is whether Egypt is forced to... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in small business optimism no game changer 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan consistent with GDP contraction Today’s weak Tankan survey supports our long-held view that Japan’s economy will have contracted in the third quarter. What’s more, a further contraction in Q4 looks increasingly likely. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.) September’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that sales growth may have picked up slightly. While this is consistent with some of the other tentative signs of “green shoots” in the last few... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales volumes was somewhat stronger than we had assumed, but only helps to offset declines in wholesale trade and manufacturing sales, which we think restrained July's... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Businesses are not hoarding more cash It is encouraging that, faced with the prospect of the US economy hitting the fiscal cliff at the end of the year, businesses have not started to hoard more cash. At the same time, though, there is... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: Has INDEC had a reality check? The most striking thing about Argentina’s Q2 GDP data is that the upward bias to growth, which has been evident in the official figures since mid-2007, seems to have eased. Even so, there are no signs... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How big is Japan's business presence in China? Following the recent protests in China that have caused many Japanese firms to temporarily close factories and shops, in this Weekly we look at how the presence of Japanese companies in China has... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending likely to have grown in Q3 Following its fall in the second quarter, real household spending appears to have put in a stronger performance in Q3. Although retail sales volumes fell back a touch in August, spending on the high... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Light at the end of the tunnel After two years of turmoil, there is light at the end of the tunnel for some of the resource-poor Arab economies. But a recovery is unlikely to start until 2014 at the earliest. Next year, most of... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) While the Olympics appears to have created some winners and losers on the high street, August’s official figures show that the Games failed to provide an overall boost to retail spending. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Where is Venezuela heading after the election? A victory for Hugo Chávez in next month’s presidential election could culminate in an economic crisis in Venezuela at some point during the next six year term. By contrast, a win for the Opposition’s... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian government bites the bullet on reforms Friday’s decision to liberalise foreign investment goes some way to dispel the impression of policy paralysis in Delhi. However, implementation of these reforms will be slow, and further measures are... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Can Japan cope without nuclear power? Leaked details of the government’s new energy plan suggest that nuclear power will be phased-out by the 2030s. In this Weekly we argue that the main reason Japan coped without nuclear power this... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Our forecasts for types of consumer spending In this Focus, we review the way we forecast the different types of consumer spending. Slower growth of spending on essentials should allow a gradual recovery in nominal discretionary spending over... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Glimmers of reform ahead of leadership handover China will unveil a new group of leaders in the next few weeks. There are tentative signs that they will finally start to grapple with the structural challenges facing the economy. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
