UK Data Response UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) & BCC Survey (Q4) The UK data released overnight enjoyed the slightly more upbeat tone seen in the other news on the economy so far this year. 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel/Sarkozy summit adds to break-up risk Merkel and Sarkozy’s pledge to accelerate their contributions to the euro-zone’s bail-out fund following today’s summit was vaguely encouraging. But far more striking was their lukewarm support for... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US stock market at risk from the earnings cycle The fourth quarter US corporate earnings season kicks off today. The reporting season is unlikely to be especially upbeat as the profits cycle is now peaking. Looking ahead, the growth rate of profits... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How should we think about the leadership transition? 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in Asia - what they mean for the region A number of important elections and leadership changes are due to take place across emerging Asia over the next 12 months. The outcomes will have implications for economic policymaking and growth... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Services Report (Dec.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) December’s CIPS/Markit report on services echoed the manufacturing and construction surveys already released in suggesting that the recovery regained some momentum at the very end of last year... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Income/ Spending (Nov.) November's personal spending and durable goods data releases were a little disappointing and together suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will now come in at slightly below 2.5% annualised, whereas... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Kim Jong-il's death adds to Korean uncertainty Given the lack of transparency in North Korea, it would be unwise to leap to any conclusions following news of Kim Jong-il’s death. Our best guess is that the uncomfortable status quo will continue... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s GDP recovers but challenging times ahead Today’s reports that Egypt’s GDP grew by 0.5% y/y in the third quarter suggest that the economy has now recovered most of the initial losses in output brought about by the social unrest. However... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response IP/PPI (Nov), Emp St/Phil Fed (Dec), Cur Ac (Q3) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in November is a bit worse than the 0.1% m/m fall we were expecting, but it looks like the floods in Thailand had more of an impact than we had... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Our first thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s ministerial reshuffle Yesterday’s ministerial reshuffle in Saudi Arabia reflects the fact that previous administrations have fallen well short of the targets for growth and employment set out in the recent National... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Global slowdown will expose failure to boost consumption China’s 2008 stimulus was intended to buy time while the economy made the transition to sustainable, consumer-led growth. It hasn’t worked out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers embrace pro-growth stance It takes some reading between the lines in today’s statement on policy priorities for 2012 to find evidence that the policy setting has changed. Nonetheless, the shift is real. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will "splendid isolation" affect the UK? David Cameron’s decision to pull away from Europe has called into question the UK’s entire future in the European Union. But when it comes to the UK’s near-term growth prospects, the debate over... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: banking squeeze intensifies amidst political unrest The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has cut the amount of funds it provides via its overnight repo auctions to the lowest level in almost two months in an attempt to shore up the ruble against a backdrop... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Putin’s popularity trigger reform? The blow to United Russia in the parliamentary elections means that Putin’s absolute control over Russian politics has weakened. The question now is whether this can act as a trigger for reform as Mr... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
