UK Economics Update Will Christmas on the high street be a wash-out? October’s poor retail sales figures have prompted fears of a disappointing Christmas on the high street. While we doubt that it will be a write-off, we expect consumers to be cautious and retailers... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and the IMF one year on Tomorrow marks the first anniversary of the start of Hungary’s negotiations with the IMF. Unfortunately, we are no closer to a deal now than we were then. For the time being, the markets don’t appear... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay prospects deteriorate Although real consumer spending probably rose in the third quarter, that could be as good as it gets for a while. 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Interpret Black Friday sales with caution We would warn against reading too much into the performance of retail sales on Black Friday as there is little evidence that it will set the tone for sales during the whole holiday season. More... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is consumer spending facing a lost decade? There is at last light at the end of the tunnel for consumer demand. But while we expect some sort of recovery in consumer spending to get going relatively soon, we expect that recovery to be very... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 12) October’s official retail sales figures support the timelier surveys in suggesting that the recovery on the high street is losing momentum ahead of the crucial Christmas shopping season. 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New line-up dents but doesn’t derail hopes of reform The unveiling of China’s new leadership in the Great Hall of the People today has dented hopes of economic policy reform. Of the three “reformist” candidates thought to have had a chance of joining... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption has lost a bit of momentum ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. If this was due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, then sales will... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What lies behind the IMF’s spat with the euro-zone? The public disagreement between the IMF and euro-zone reveals underlying tensions over whether core euro-zone governments will accept haircuts on their share of Greece’s public debt and concern among... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Elections take centre stage The recent peaceful transitions of power following elections in Senegal and Zambia demonstrate that the threat of voting-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been receding in the past few... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What's next for Greece? The passing of the omnibus bill by Parliament last night means that Greece has taken a decisive step towards gaining the next loan tranche of its latest bail-out. But although this has reduced the... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Upbeat small businesses don't alter broad picture The latest increase in CFIB's small business optimism index to a six-month high of 65.6 in October, from 62.0 in September, doesn't alter the big picture that the economy may have slowed further at... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US election The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama re-election doesn’t alter bigger picture The re-election of President Obama removes one uncertainty that has been weighing on the markets over the last few months. But they are none the wiser about if, how and when Congress will deal with... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) October’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided evidence that, following Q3’s generally positive news from the high street, a retail recovery seems to be fizzling out. 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery remains just out of reach The squeeze on real pay is ending but the prospect of an actual recovery now looks a bit further off. We still expect the consumer spending recovery to be very muted. 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
