Canada Economics Update Business profit margins under pressure The 4.9% q/q decline in second-quarter business operating profits casts further doubt on the outlook for investment and payroll employment. We certainly expect the decline in profit margins to... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal dilemma intensifies Last week brought more bad news for the Chancellor. The public sector ran a deficit in July, a month when a surplus is typically the norm. Admittedly, some temporary factors contributed to July’s poor... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is this the real crunch time for Greece? Given the number of “crunch times”, “end-games” and “abysses” that Greece has faced over the last two years, it would be easy to dismiss the latest speculation that the tragedy is about to reach its... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug.) August’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that the Olympics did little to boost retail sales. Recent bad news on petrol and energy prices, as well as rising borrowing costs, will dampen the... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus A deal with the IMF will mark a turning point for Egypt The visit of Christine Lagarde to Egypt today is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the country is close to signing a deal with the IMF. If this materialises before the end of the year (as the... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Surging agricultural prices small net positive for economy While the drought threatening US farmers' crops has led to a surge in agricultural crop prices, many farmers in Western Canada are thankfully anticipating a return to normal production and in some... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Dragged down by weaker global economy The next 12 months are shaping up to be the most challenging since the 2008-09 global financial crisis for Latin America. A combination of weaker external demand, falling commodity prices and tighter... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising interest rate expectations misplaced Market expectations of higher interest rates over the next 12 months look misplaced. The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with much of Europe in recession and the US economy facing a fiscal... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Olympics to help sales maintain momentum After a slow start, it looks like the Olympic Games have provided a reasonable boost to high street spending. 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don’t count on extra budget to revive the recovery The government has raised the prospect of introducing a supplementary budget before the end of the year. With the recovery unwinding and an election just around the corner, it is not hard to see why... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan-China trade agreements are not a big deal Efforts by policymakers in Taiwan and China to strengthen their economic ties have had a negligible impact on Taiwan’s merchandise exports to the mainland, although Taiwan has benefitted in some other... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The tide could be turning in Egypt’s favour Reports that Christine Lagarde will visit Egypt next week and that the country may seek more funds from the IMF than had been initially thought are positive developments. This follows the news that... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Not only did retail sales post a reasonable rise in July, but an upward revision to June’s figures added to other evidence suggesting that the preliminary estimate of GDP will be revised up next week... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil takes a (small) step in the right direction Measures unveiled by the Brazilian government this afternoon are good news insofar as they will help tackle some of the supply side problems that are holding the economy back. But any impact will be... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Jul.) The sharp 0.8% m/m rebound in retail sales in July was the first increase in four months, but only reversed the declines in the previous two months. So although consumers might have loosened their... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian president fighting for civilian rule In a surprising move, the Egyptian President decided to sack the country’s two top-ranking generals and cancelled an earlier declaration by the military council that gave it wide legislative powers... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
