UK Economics Focus Fiscal challenges to remain beyond current squeeze The UK’s current deficit reduction plan offers to some the happy prospect of a smaller public sector in the future. But the fiscal consequences of the UK’s ageing population may frustrate such... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 summit meets low expectations The best that can be said about the Los Cabos summit is that it appears to have been less fractious and better organised than November’s meeting in Cannes. But it seems to have done precious little to... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Outlook darkens for Egypt as political conditions deteriorate The Egyptian military is tightening its grip over political life in the country, casting doubts over the authority of the new president. Investors should therefore be concerned that recent... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election results do not eliminate exit risks New Democracy’s narrow victory in Sunday’s general election will ease concerns of an imminent and disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone. But it remains unlikely that euro-zone policymakers will... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) The stalling in underlying retail sales growth in May suggests that the recent easing in jobs growth has started to curtail spending. We doubt, however, that the economic recovery has come to a... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Under the weather? The recent swings in weather conditions and retail sales have brought to the fore the issue of the impact of the weather on consumer spending. There are occasions when the weather can have an impact... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Business conditions tougher than expected but optimism remains The government’s Business Outlook Survey indicates conditions deteriorated slightly in Q2, confounding Q1’s forecasts of a strong recovery. Despite the tougher-than-expected environment, firms remain... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Peso driven by risk appetite not politics The latest opinion poll in Mexico suggests that the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made a late charge ahead of July’s presidential election. That has coincided with a sharp sell-off of... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Problems mount for the next Greek Government Markets have reacted positively to some signs of growing support for the pro-bail-out parties amongst Greek voters. But the formation of a government headed by New Democracy is unlikely to end deposit... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: political uncertainty set to push economy to the brink The results of the 1st round of presidential elections in Egypt could prolong the political uncertainty that has gripped the country since the revolution, which will increase the near-term risk of a... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt’s presidential elections Today marks the first day in Egypt’s presidential elections with the opinion polls and expatriate votes showing contradictory results. Regardless of who wins, two outstanding issues remain from an... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pre-election spending deepens structural problems in Venezuela The recent sale of debt by the Venezuelan authorities will help to bolster economic growth ahead of October’s presidential election. But the fact that the debt issuance has effectively been monetised... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a country exiting the euro also have to leave the EU? Despite much confusion on this point, there does not appear to be any insurmountable legal barrier to a country leaving the euro and remaining within the European Union (EU), even without the prior... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece: After the election A victory for Greece’s anti-bail-out parties in the June election would not necessarily mark the end of the bail-out deal. But any agreement which is reached between the Government and the troika is... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Apr.) & Construction (Mar.) April’s producer price figures indicated that firms are passing on a bigger than expected proportion of past increases in their costs to customers. But with the latest construction figures suggesting... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
