Global Markets Update Turn in the US profit cycle looms US corporate profits have grown significantly in the nearly three years since the end of the last recession. Admittedly, there are structural reasons why the share of profits in corporate output may... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) & Empire State Index (Apr.) Households appear to be contributing more to the economic recovery just at a time when the industrial recovery seems to be running out of stream. Some of the strength in consumption in the first... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: political chaos raises risk of major economic crisis Various events over the past couple of days have thrown Egypt’s fragile political transition into disarray. These developments raise fresh doubts over the country’s ability to secure external... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Mar.) & Construction (Feb.) March’s producer prices figures confirmed that rising energy prices have pushed up manufacturers’ costs. Nonetheless, the figures still suggested that consumer price inflation is on course to fall to... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) & PPI (Mar.) In response to the unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit in February, we have raised our estimate for first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 2.0%. Meanwhile, we doubt that that the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response NBS business conditions survey (Q1) The results of China’s largest quarterly business survey, released today, reinforce the view that economic activity weakened in Q1, but also suggest that many firms have turned more positive about the... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Burma - Asian tiger or basket case? After decades as an international pariah, Burma is catching the eye of investors. Recent market-friendly reforms, an abundance of natural resources, and proximity to China and India are some of the... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the increase in QFII and RQFII quotas mean? The increase in the amount of funds foreign investors are allowed to invest in China’s financial markets is the latest in a series of steps that relax controls on cross-border capital flows. The move... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bigger firewall is a small step forward The reported plans to increase the size of the euro-zone bail-out fund - hopefully to be agreed at today’s (Friday’s) Eurogroup meeting - provide some encouragement that the policymakers have... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Will Peña Nieto push through reforms? The Mexican presidential election race formally begins today and the latest polls suggest that the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto is likely to triumph in July’s vote. But while Mr. Peña Nieto has identified... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Retail Sales (Mar./Feb.) March’s euro-zone CPI inflation data confirmed that stubbornly high inflation is adding to the squeeze on households’ purchasing power from rising unemployment and fiscal tightening. 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales jump flattered by temporary factors The surprisingly strong rise in Japanese retail sales in February largely reflects a number of temporary factors, including an extra shopping day due to the leap year and earthquake-related insurance... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to signal return to anaemic growth The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey for March (to be released on Monday) will probably show a small improvement in business conditions in the first quarter, consistent with a return to growth in GDP, as... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response SME Confidence (Mar.) Confidence among Japan’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) jumped sharply in March after several months of small declines. However, sentiment is clearly fragile as firms expect conditions to... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s rise in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator suggested that the economy remains resilient. But the increase was the smallest for some time and other business surveys paint a less upbeat... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s 0.5% m/m increase in retail sales, which was mainly due to sharply higher new vehicle sales, was much weaker than the 2.0% increase we had estimated. The decline in spending elsewhere, which... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
